AI Home Win Predictions Today
This is Formatic's AI home win prediction page, updated every day. Home advantage is real in football, and the model includes a home advantage term fitted for each league. The model is a statistical one: it fits every team's attack and defence ratings from match history, adjusted for the strength of the opponents they faced, and turns them into a grid of scoreline probabilities. A Home Win goes on the Match Result card when it is the most likely of the three outcomes in the model's numbers and clears a minimum probability; otherwise the card can fall back to Double Chance. Current engine (v9), since 1 August 2026: Home Win is landing at 54.5% (951 settled picks). Below are today's Home Win selections. Each pick includes the model's predicted scoreline, the trust rating (1-10) behind it, and a short explanation written from the model's own numbers.
Our record on Home Win
54.5%518 of 951 settled
Current engine (v9), since 1 August 2026. Wins and losses only, pushes excluded. See the full record.
Today's picks
Frequently asked
- When does the model prefer Home Win over DC Home/Draw?
- When the home win is the most likely of the three outcomes in the model's numbers and clears a minimum probability. Otherwise the Match Result card can fall back to Double Chance.
- What's the Home Win hit rate?
- Current engine (v9), since 1 August 2026: Home Win picks have landed 518 of 951 (54.5%) in our tracked record. Every result is settled in public; see the breakdown at /stats.
- What does Home Win mean?
- The home team has to win the match in normal time. A draw or an away win and the pick loses.