Almería arrive third in Segunda Division with 18 points from 8 games, and the underlying shape of that record is hard to ignore: 6 wins, 0 draws, just 2 defeats, 13 scored against only 5 conceded. Leganés sit 13th on 11 points, 7 adrift of Almería, with a goal difference of -5 that tells its own story. Almería's form is marked strong, Leganés patchy, and Formatic's form gap reading points firmly the home side's way.

The last 10 outings only sharpen that picture. Almería have won 8 of 10, scoring 19 and conceding just 5, with a clean sheet in 6 of those matches and goals in 8 of 10. The run includes competitive wins over Mallorca away, Cadiz 3-2 at home, and a 2-1 victory against Burgos on 3 October, either side of two narrow away defeats to Sabadell and Tenerife. That is a side scoring freely and defending tightly in roughly equal measure. Leganés, by contrast, have managed just 4 wins from 10 with 9 scored and 11 conceded, failing to score in 5 of those 10 games. A 0-4 defeat away to Cadiz on 3 October and a 0-2 home loss to Castellón either side of a 3-2 win over Granada CF at home show a team capable of moments but short on consistency.

The season profile numbers back up the eye test. Almería are averaging 13.2 shots and 4.2 on target per game with 54.8 percent possession, keeping a clean sheet in 60 percent of matches and drawing a blank in only 20 percent. Leganés manage 11.1 shots and 3.8 on target with just 45.2 percent of the ball, and have failed to score in half their games this season while picking up more fouls (14.6 per game) and cards (2.4) than their hosts. The head to head record across the itemised meetings leans Almería's way too: 2-1 and 3-0 wins plus a 1-0 success sit alongside a Leganés win and a draw, and those games have been shared with goals, 3.0 per meeting across the sample and both teams scoring in 5 of 7.

Everything here points toward a home side playing with real conviction against a visitor short on scoring threat and shipping goals regularly on the road. Almería's capacity for clean sheets and goals at both ends in head to head history suggests this will not be a nervy, goalless watch, and a repeat of the kind of scoreline Almería have produced against mid table and lower opposition this season looks the likely shape, a home win with goals in it rather than a backs to the wall shutout.