Almería enter this Segunda División opener with a slightly firmer pre-season footing than their visitors, posting a weighted form score of 6.3 out of 10 against Leganés' 5.7. That half-point gap is built on a three-win close to their summer schedule, most notably a 4-0 victory away to Cordoba and a 2-0 triumph at Al-Nassr, while Leganés signed off with a goalless stalemate at home to Tenerife. Across their last five friendlies Almería won 3, lost 2 and found the net 7 times while conceding only 3, a goals-per-game ratio that suggests their attacking patterns clicked into place as August arrived.

Leganés won twice and drew once in their own five-game warm-up, scoring 6 and conceding 6, but the distribution tells a more uneven story. A 3-0 home win over Mérida AD and a 2-1 success against Al-Rayyan SC were offset by a 4-1 defeat away to Real Madrid and a 1-0 loss at Swansea, leaving their defensive record decidedly more porous than the hosts'. They kept clean sheets in 2 of those 5 outings and failed to score in 2 as well, a sign that consistency remains a work in progress.

Almería's season profile across that five-match sample shows 12.8 shots and 4.6 on target per outing, with 1.89 expected goals and 50 percent of fixtures ending in a clean sheet. Possession sits at 44.4 percent, but the shot volume and on-target accuracy point to a side comfortable ceding the ball and punishing transitions. They failed to score in 30 percent of those matches, a rate that aligns with their two friendly defeats, both of which came by narrow margins and both away from home.

The head-to-head ledger covers seven meetings and tilts 3-2 in Almería's favour with 2 draws, averaging 3.0 goals per game and producing both teams to score in 5 of the 7. Over 2.5 goals landed in 5 of those fixtures, including Almería's most recent pair of wins: a 2-1 at home in April 2026 and a 3-0 away triumph at Leganés in November 2025. Leganés' lone recent success came on home turf in January 2025, a 3-2 scoreline that underlines the volatility of this pairing. A 2-2 draw in May 2022 and Almería's narrow 1-0 home win in October 2021 complete the itemised sequence, reinforcing the pattern of tight contests that regularly eclipse the goals line.

Formatic's model has not yet published its cards for this fixture, but the arithmetic suggests Almería carry the sharper preparation, the more favourable recent head-to-head record and the defensive solidity that could prove decisive if Leganés arrive as open as their pre-season concessions imply. The hosts' ability to average nearly five shots on target per match, combined with their 3-goal buffer in the friendly window, points to a side ready to control proceedings from the opening whistle.