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    Primeira Liga · kickoff 15:30
    Upcoming
    Alverca
    Alverca
    17th in the table
    WLDL
    vs
    Santa Clara
    Santa Clara
    3rd in the table
    DWDWW
    how we see it finishing
    37%
    Alverca
    29%
    Draw
    34%
    Santa Clara

    Our own numbers, from the goal rates the model fits for each side.

    We expect around 2.3 goalsWe make it 1 - 1
    most likely scores1-113%ours1-012%0-111%0-010%2-18%

    Our score is the one that fits the goals we expect, so it is not always the biggest percentage above: the single likeliest score is usually a low scoring draw, and even that lands only about 12% of the time. This is the model's working, not a tip. The bets it leads to are below.

    12.70
    X3.15
    22.70

    How this scoreline is calculated

    What we would back

    Powered by Formatic AI
    Match result
    Santa Clara or Draw@ 1.44
    6/10
    Santa Clara winning or the draw covers two of the three results, 63% between them. Only Alverca winning beats it, at 37%.
    GoalsTop Pick
    Under 2.5 Goals@ 1.65
    6/10
    We make the total 2.2 goals, so Under 2.5 Goals lands 61%. The line below, Under 1.5, is 34%.
    Second goals lineBanker
    Under 3.5 Goals@ 1.22
    9/10
    Under 3.5 Goals lands 81%. The line below, Under 2.5, is 61%.

    Top Pick is the selection our model backs most strongly on this match, not the longest price. It is often a short one. Banker is the shortest priced call we rate highly, and Value the longest. Every one is published before kickoff and settled in public.

    Alverca

    Form comparison

    Santa Clara

    4.7
    Form scoreout of 10
    8.0
    Form score: Alverca 4.7, Santa Clara 8.0
    1.12
    Goals scoredper game, form window
    1.80
    Goals scored: Alverca 1.12, Santa Clara 1.80
    1.12
    Goals concededper game, form window, lower is better
    0.50
    Goals conceded: Alverca 1.12, Santa Clara 0.50
    strong
    Opposition facedform window
    mixed

    Where those opponents sat in the table: strong means they averaged roughly the top 40%, weak roughly the bottom 40%, mixed in between.

    Opposition faced: Alverca strong, Santa Clara mixed

    The form score weights every result and every goal by where the opponent sat in the table, so five wins over the bottom of the table score below five over the top.

    1/5Alverca
    Clean Sheetslast 5 games
    Santa Clara3/5
    1/5Alverca
    Failed to Scorelast 5 games
    Santa Clara0/5
    1.1Alverca
    Goals For per game
    Santa Clara1.8
    1.1Alverca
    Goals Against per game
    Santa Clara0.5
    2.7Alverca
    Yellow Cards per game
    Santa Clara1.8
    0Alverca
    Win Streakmatches
    Santa Clara2
    Season averages • Alverca: 8 matches • Santa Clara: 10 matches • Refreshed weekly
    Alverca
    Alverca
    Mixed4.7/10
    WLDL
    Over 2.5 goals
    2/4
    BTTS
    2/4
    Clean sheet
    1/4
    Scored in
    3/4
    Santa Clara
    Santa Clara
    Excellent8.0/10
    DWDWW
    Over 2.5 goals
    2/5
    BTTS
    2/5
    Clean sheet
    3/5
    Scored in
    5/5
    Last 5 meetings
    0W - 1D - 1L from Alverca's perspective
    • 21 Feb 2026Alverca1-1Santa Clara
    • 20 Sept 2025Santa Clara2-1Alverca
    Alverca
    Alverca
    Last 5 matches
    • 22 Aug 2026vsSporting CP3-1L
    • 15 Aug 2026vsEstrela2-2D
    • 09 Aug 2026vsFC Porto2-0L
    • 01 Aug 2026vsSporting CP B1-0W
    Santa Clara
    Santa Clara
    Last 5 matches
    • 23 Aug 2026vsFamalicao1-0W
    • 15 Aug 2026vsAcademico Viseu0-1W
    • 10 Aug 2026vsNacional2-2D
    • 25 Jul 2026vsArouca3-0W
    • 22 Jul 2026vsFelgueiras 19321-1D
    PosTeamPts
    1FC Porto9
    2Sporting CP7
    3Santa Clara7
    4Maritimo7
    5Gil Vicente6
    15Estoril1
    16Moreirense FC1
    17Alverca1
    18Casa Pia0
    Updated daily

    Alverca vs Santa Clara: form and season numbers

    Alverca take a form score of 4.7 out of 10 into this Primeira Liga fixture, against 8.0 for Santa Clara. Alverca have 1 win, 1 draw and 2 defeats in their last 4, while Santa Clara have 3 wins and 2 draws in theirs. Across the season Alverca average 1.1 goals scored and 1.1 conceded per game, Santa Clara 1.8 and 0.5. Alverca have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their matches this season, Santa Clara in 60%. In their last 2 meetings Alverca have won 0, drawn 1 and lost 1. Alverca sit 17th on 1 point, Santa Clara 3rd on 7.

    Form, head-to-head and season statistics are free to read. The model's predictions for this fixture are in the cards above.

    Tomorrow's top pick, free, the moment it drops

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