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    Champions League · kickoff 20:00
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    AS Roma
    AS Roma
    22nd in the table
    WDWDD
    We make it
    2-1
    2.9 goals expected
    Real Madrid
    Real Madrid
    16th in the table
    WWWLW

    What we would back

    Powered by Formatic AI
    Match resultValue
    AS Roma or Draw@ 1.88
    6/10
    AS Roma winning or the draw covers two of the three results, 63% between them. Only Real Madrid winning beats it, at 37%.
    GoalsTop Pick
    Over 2.5 Goals@ 1.43
    5/10
    We make the total 2.9 goals, so Over 2.5 Goals lands 56%. The next line up, Over 3.5, is 34%.
    Second goals lineBanker
    Over 1.5 Goals@ 1.11
    9/10
    Over 1.5 Goals lands 79%. The next line up, Over 2.5, is 56%.

    Top Pick is the card that stands out most against what its market usually offers, so it is rarely the shortest price here and not always the best rated. Banker is the shortest price under 1.25, and Value the longest over 1.60. Every one is published before kickoff and settled in public.

    how we see it finishing
    38%
    AS Roma
    25%
    Draw
    37%
    Real Madrid

    The market rates Real Madrid at 49%, so we are 12 points lower than the price implies.

    Our own numbers, from the goal rates the model fits for each side.

    We expect around 2.9 goalsWe make it 2 - 1

    Our score is the one that fits the goals we expect, so it is not always the biggest percentage above: the single likeliest score is usually a low scoring draw, and even that lands only about 12% of the time. This is the model's working, not a tip. The bets it leads to are above.

    13.60
    X3.99
    21.94

    How this scoreline is calculated

    AS Roma

    Form comparison

    Real Madrid

    7.2
    Form scoreout of 10, last 10 matches
    8.1
    Form score: AS Roma 7.2, Real Madrid 8.1
    2.10
    Goals scoredper game, last 10
    2.40
    Goals scored: AS Roma 2.10, Real Madrid 2.40
    1.00
    Goals concededper game, last 10, lower is better
    0.90
    Goals conceded: AS Roma 1.00, Real Madrid 0.90
    mixed
    Opposition facedlast 10
    mixed

    Where those opponents sat in the table: strong means they averaged roughly the top 40%, weak roughly the bottom 40%, mixed in between.

    Opposition faced: AS Roma mixed, Real Madrid mixed

    The form score weights every result and every goal by where the opponent sat in the table, so five wins over the bottom of the table score below five over the top.

    2/5AS Roma
    Clean Sheetslast 5 games
    Real Madrid1/5
    1/5AS Roma
    Failed to Scorelast 5 games
    Real Madrid0/5
    2.1AS Roma
    Goals For per game
    Real Madrid2.4
    1.0AS Roma
    Goals Against per game
    Real Madrid0.9
    1.9AS Roma
    Yellow Cards per game
    Real Madrid1.9
    0AS Roma
    Win Streakmatches
    Real Madrid1
    Season averages • AS Roma: 10 matches • Real Madrid: 10 matches • Refreshed weekly
    AS Roma
    AS Roma
    Solid7.2/10
    Form score, last 10 matches
    WDWDD
    Over 2.5 goals
    2/5
    BTTS
    3/5
    Clean sheet
    2/5
    Scored in
    4/5
    Real Madrid
    Real Madrid
    Excellent8.1/10
    Form score, last 10 matches
    WWWLW
    Over 2.5 goals
    4/5
    BTTS
    4/5
    Clean sheet
    1/5
    Scored in
    5/5
    Last 5 meetings
    0W - 0D - 5L from AS Roma's perspective
    • 27 Nov 2018AS Roma0-2Real Madrid
    • 19 Sept 2018Real Madrid3-0AS Roma
    • 08 Aug 2018Real Madrid2-1AS Roma
    • 08 Mar 2016Real Madrid2-0AS Roma
    • 17 Feb 2016AS Roma0-2Real Madrid
    AS Roma
    AS Roma
    Last 5 matches
    • 11 Oct 2026vsComo0-0D
    • 19 Sept 2026vsInter2-2D
    • 14 Sept 2026vsTorino0-2W
    • 10 Sept 2026vsFenerbahçe1-1D
    • 05 Sept 2026vsAtalanta2-1W
    Real Madrid
    Real Madrid
    Last 5 matches
    • 10 Oct 2026vsVillarreal1-0W
    • 20 Sept 2026vsAtletico Madrid2-1L
    • 15 Sept 2026vsElche2-3W
    • 12 Sept 2026vsRayo Vallecano4-1W
    • 08 Sept 2026vsInter2-1W
    PosTeamPts
    14Dortmund3
    15Liverpool3
    16Real Madrid3
    17AEK Athens FC3
    18Club Brugge KV3
    20RB Leipzig3
    21Sabah FA3
    22AS Roma1
    23Shakhtar Donetsk1
    24Fenerbahçe1
    Updated daily

    AS Roma vs Real Madrid: form and season numbers

    AS Roma take a form score of 7.2 out of 10 into this Champions League fixture, against 8.1 for Real Madrid. AS Roma have 2 wins and 3 draws in their last 5, while Real Madrid have 4 wins and 1 defeat in theirs. Across the season AS Roma average 2.1 goals scored and 1.0 conceded per game, Real Madrid 2.4 and 0.9. AS Roma have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their matches this season, Real Madrid in 30%. In their last 5 meetings AS Roma have won 0, drawn 0 and lost 5. AS Roma sit 22nd on 1 point, Real Madrid 16th on 3.

    Form, head-to-head and season statistics are free to read. The model's predictions for this fixture are in the cards above.

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