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    MLS · kickoff 01:30
    FT 1-4
    Austin FC
    Austin FC
    13th in the table
    DWDDL
    final
    1 - 4
    Nashville SC
    Nashville SC
    1st in the table
    LDWWW

    What we would back

    Powered by Formatic AI
    Match resultWin
    Nashville SC Win@ 1.91
    2/10
    Our three-way read is Austin FC 32%, the draw 26%, Nashville SC 42%, so Nashville SC are the likeliest single outcome.
    GoalsLoss
    Under 3.5 Goals@ 1.40
    8/10
    We make the total 2.6 goals, so Under 3.5 Goals lands 72%. The line below, Under 2.5, is 50%.
    Double chanceWin
    Nashville SC or Draw@ 1.25
    7/10
    Nashville SC winning or the draw covers two of the three results, 68% between them. Only Austin FC winning beats it, at 32%.

    Top Pick is the card that stands out most against what its market usually offers, so it is rarely the shortest price here and not always the best rated. Banker is the shortest price under 1.25, and Value the longest over 1.60. Every one is published before kickoff and settled in public.

    how we see it finishing
    32%
    Austin FC
    26%
    Draw
    42%
    Nashville SC

    The market rates Nashville SC at 50%, so we are 8 points lower than the price implies.

    Our own numbers, from the goal rates the model fits for each side.

    We expect around 2.7 goalsWe make it 1 - 2

    Our score is the one that fits the goals we expect, so it is not always the biggest percentage above: the single likeliest score is usually a low scoring draw, and even that lands only about 12% of the time. This is the model's working, not a tip. The bets it leads to are above.

    13.70
    X3.75
    21.91

    How this scoreline is calculated

    Austin FC

    Form comparison

    Nashville SC

    5.1
    Form scoreout of 10, last 10 matches
    8.7
    Form score: Austin FC 5.1, Nashville SC 8.7
    1.30
    Goals scoredper game, last 10
    2.40
    Goals scored: Austin FC 1.30, Nashville SC 2.40
    1.50
    Goals concededper game, last 10, lower is better
    0.80
    Goals conceded: Austin FC 1.50, Nashville SC 0.80
    strong
    Opposition facedlast 10
    mixed

    Where those opponents sat in the table: strong means they averaged roughly the top 40%, weak roughly the bottom 40%, mixed in between.

    Opposition faced: Austin FC strong, Nashville SC mixed

    The form score weights every result and every goal by where the opponent sat in the table, so five wins over the bottom of the table score below five over the top.

    1/5Austin FC
    Clean Sheetslast 5 games
    Nashville SC2/5
    1/5Austin FC
    Failed to Scorelast 5 games
    Nashville SC0/5
    1.3Austin FC
    Goals For per game
    Nashville SC2.4
    1.5Austin FC
    Goals Against per game
    Nashville SC0.8
    1.6Austin FC
    Yellow Cards per game
    Nashville SC1.7
    0.5Austin FC
    Red Cards per game
    Nashville SC0.0
    0Austin FC
    Win Streakmatches
    Nashville SC3
    Season averages • Austin FC: 10 matches • Nashville SC: 10 matches • Refreshed weekly
    Austin FC
    Austin FC
    Solid5.1/10
    Form score, last 10 matches
    DWDDL
    Over 2.5 goals
    3/5
    BTTS
    4/5
    Clean sheet
    1/5
    Scored in
    4/5
    Nashville SC
    Nashville SC
    Excellent8.7/10
    Form score, last 10 matches
    LDWWW
    Over 2.5 goals
    4/5
    BTTS
    3/5
    Clean sheet
    2/5
    Scored in
    5/5
    Last 5 meetings
    2W - 1D - 4L from Austin FC's perspective
    • 11 Oct 2026Austin1-4Nashville SC
    • 02 Oct 2025Austin1-2Nashville SC
    • 15 Feb 2025Austin2-1Nashville SC
    • 25 Aug 2024Nashville SC0-2Austin
    • 18 Sept 2022Austin1-1Nashville SC
    Austin FC
    Austin FC
    Last 5 matches
    • 11 Oct 2026vsNashville SC1-4L
    • 27 Sept 2026vsSan Diego3-3D
    • 20 Sept 2026vsFC Dallas0-0D
    • 13 Sept 2026vsVancouver Whitecaps1-2W
    • 10 Sept 2026vsColorado Rapids1-1D
    Nashville SC
    Nashville SC
    Last 5 matches
    • 11 Oct 2026vsAustin1-4W
    • 27 Sept 2026vsToronto FC2-0W
    • 20 Sept 2026vsChicago Fire3-0W
    • 12 Sept 2026vsInter Miami2-2D
    • 09 Sept 2026vsToronto FC2-1L
    PosTeamPts
    11Real Salt Lake32
    12San Diego FC32
    13Austin FC31
    14Minnesota United FC30
    15Sporting Kansas City22
    1Nashville SC63
    2Inter Miami49
    3Chicago Fire FC48
    Updated daily

    Austin FC vs Nashville SC: form and season numbers

    Austin FC take a form score of 5.1 out of 10 into this MLS fixture, against 8.7 for Nashville SC. Austin FC have 1 win, 3 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5, while Nashville SC have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in theirs. Across the season Austin FC average 1.3 goals scored and 1.5 conceded per game, Nashville SC 2.4 and 0.8. Austin FC have kept a clean sheet in 10% of their matches this season, Nashville SC in 50%. In their last 7 meetings Austin FC have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 4. Austin FC sit 13th on 31 points, Nashville SC 1st on 63.

    Form, head-to-head and season statistics are free to read. The model's predictions for this fixture are in the cards above.

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