What we would back
Powered by Formatic AITop Pick is the card that stands out most against what its market usually offers, so it is rarely the shortest price here and not always the best rated. Banker is the shortest price under 1.25, and Value the longest over 1.60. Every one is published before kickoff and settled in public.
The market rates Avellino at 34%, so we are 9 points higher than the price implies.
Our own numbers, from the goal rates the model fits for each side.
Our score is the one that fits the goals we expect, so it is not always the biggest percentage above: the single likeliest score is usually a low scoring draw, and even that lands only about 12% of the time. This is the model's working, not a tip. The bets it leads to are above.
How this scoreline is calculated
Avellino
Form comparisonSampdoria
Where those opponents sat in the table: strong means they averaged roughly the top 40%, weak roughly the bottom 40%, mixed in between.
Opposition faced: Avellino strong, Sampdoria mixedThe form score weights every result and every goal by where the opponent sat in the table, so five wins over the bottom of the table score below five over the top.
- 22 Mar 2026Sampdoria2-1Avellino
- 10 Jan 2026Avellino2-1Sampdoria
- 19 Sept 2026vsAscoli3-1L
- 13 Sept 2026vsPalermo1-1D
- 06 Sept 2026vsModena0-1W
- 29 Aug 2026vsVicenza Virtus3-0W
- 22 Aug 2026vsArezzo1-2L
- 19 Sept 2026vsCatanzaro2-1W
- 13 Sept 2026vsMantova2-0L
- 07 Sept 2026vsPalermo3-1L
- 29 Aug 2026vsJuve Stabia1-2L
- 23 Aug 2026vsCesena1-1D
Avellino vs Sampdoria: form and season numbers
Avellino take a form score of 5.2 out of 10 into this Serie B fixture, against 3.5 for Sampdoria. Avellino have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in their last 5, while Sampdoria have 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats in theirs. Across the season Avellino average 1.9 goals scored and 1.7 conceded per game, Sampdoria 1.0 and 1.3. Avellino have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their matches this season, Sampdoria in 30%. In their last 2 meetings Avellino have won 1, drawn 0 and lost 1. Avellino sit 9th on 7 points, Sampdoria 17th on 4.
Form, head-to-head and season statistics are free to read. The model's predictions for this fixture are in the cards above.
Avellino vs Sampdoria prediction: steady hosts face a patchy visitor
Eight places and 3 points separate these two in Serie B, and the numbers behind that gap tell their own story. Avellino sit 9th with 7 points from 5 games, Sampdoria are 17th on 4, and while neither record is flattering, Formatic's form bands draw a clear line between them: Avellino rated steady, Sampdoria patchy, with a clear gap in form favouring the home side.
Avellino's underlying figures are modest but functional. They have scored 7 and conceded 6 in the league for a +1 goal difference, and across their last 10 matches in all competitions they managed W4 D2 L4 with 19 scored and 17 conceded, scoring in 9 of those 10 games. The most recent competitive run shows the pattern: a 1-0 win away to Modena and a 3-0 home win over Vicenza Virtus either side of a 1-1 draw with Palermo and defeats to Arezzo and Ascoli. That is a side that scores regularly but leaks goals too, clean sheets coming in only 3 of 10.
Sampdoria's season reads worse on paper. They sit 17th with a goal difference of -4, having scored 5 and conceded 9 in the league, and their wider sample of 10 shows W3 D2 L5 with just 10 scored against 13 conceded. They did beat Catanzaro 2-1 most recently, but that followed back to back league defeats, 0-2 away to Mantova and 1-3 away to Palermo, and a 1-2 home loss to Juve Stabia before that. They failed to score in 3 of those 10 outings and kept only 3 clean sheets, and their season-sample shots on target figure of 5.2 per game has not translated into the goals column against the better sides they have faced.
History offers little separation: the last two meetings split 1-1, Sampdoria winning 2-1 away in March 2026 and Avellino winning 2-1 at home in January 2026, with both teams scoring in each and both going over 2.5 goals. That head to head pattern, 3.0 goals per meeting, lines up with a market that makes Sampdoria only a marginal favourite in what shapes up as an even game, Avellino's steadier recent form offsetting the table gap. Formatic's model leans toward control rather than chaos here, rating Under 3.5 Goals at a trust of 9 out of 10 and Under 2.5 Goals at 5 out of 10, while also giving Avellino or the draw a trust of 7 out of 10. Expect a tighter contest than the respective league positions suggest, with Avellino's extra steadiness enough to keep them well in a low to moderate-scoring game rather than see them cut off as underdogs.
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