AZ Alkmaar arrive off the back of a 10-match stretch that reads W7 D1 L2 with 22 scored and 9 conceded, yet the league table shows just 1 match played in this competition, a defeat that leaves them 26th with a goal difference of -1. That contrast between a strong broader form band and a blank start in Europa League table terms is the central puzzle of this fixture, and it is Hapoel Beer Sheva, sitting 20th with a single point from their one match and a goal difference level at 0, who sit 6 places and 1 point above them.

The Dutch side's underlying numbers back up the strong form tag. Across those 10 matches they scored in 8 and kept 4 clean sheets, with wins including a 4-1 away at Utrecht, a 5-2 home win over GO Ahead Eagles and a 4-0 away success in the Super Cup against PSV Eindhoven. The season profile adds weight: 18.1 shots and 6.6 on target per game, 7.4 corners and 59.1 percent possession, with an expected goals figure of 2.31 per match. The one blemish directly relevant to this competition is the 0-1 away defeat to Sunderland on 16 September, a reminder that the continental level has already asked different questions of them than their domestic run has.

Hapoel Beer Sheva's record is steadier than spectacular. Their 10-match sample shows W5 D2 L3 with 14 scored and 17 conceded, and the goals have come in bursts: a 2-0 away win at Ironi Tiberias and a 2-0 away win at Hapoel Petah Tikva sit alongside a 1-4 home defeat to Maccabi Tel Aviv and a 2-5 away defeat to Sabah FA in the Champions League. Their one Europa League fixture in the sample, a 0-0 draw at home to Dinamo Zagreb on 16 September, suggests they can hold a continental opponent without creating much themselves, a pattern that fits a shots per game average of just 14.1 and 4.6 on target, with a clean sheet in 4 of those 10 matches but also a failure to score in 2 of them.

Both sides have shown they can keep clean sheets in 4 of their last 10, yet AZ Alkmaar's attacking output, 22 goals in that span against Hapoel Beer Sheva's 14, points to a gap that the Formatic form bands confirm: a clear advantage for the home side. Given AZ Alkmaar's possession-heavy approach at 59.1 percent and their higher shot volume, the likeliest shape is a game where they control territory and look to translate set pieces and sustained pressure into goals, while Hapoel Beer Sheva's record of defeats conceding multiple goals away from home, including that 2-5 reversal at Sabah FA, hints they may struggle to contain a side firing at this rate without matching it at the other end.