What we would back
Powered by Formatic AITop Pick is the card that stands out most against what its market usually offers, so it is rarely the shortest price here and not always the best rated. Banker is the shortest price under 1.25, and Value the longest over 1.60. Every one is published before kickoff and settled in public.
The market rates Bahia at 56%, so we are 10 points lower than the price implies.
Our own numbers, from the goal rates the model fits for each side.
Our score is the one that fits the goals we expect, so it is not always the biggest percentage above: the single likeliest score is usually a low scoring draw, and even that lands only about 12% of the time. This is the model's working, not a tip. The bets it leads to are above.
How this scoreline is calculated
Bahia
Form comparisonMirassol
Where those opponents sat in the table: strong means they averaged roughly the top 40%, weak roughly the bottom 40%, mixed in between.
Opposition faced: Bahia mixed, Mirassol strongThe form score weights every result and every goal by where the opponent sat in the table, so five wins over the bottom of the table score below five over the top.
- 11 Apr 2026Mirassol1-2Bahia
- 31 Aug 2025Mirassol5-1Bahia
- 13 Apr 2025Bahia1-1Mirassol
- 09 Oct 2026vsPalmeiras1-0L
- 20 Sept 2026vsAtletico Paranaense2-1L
- 14 Sept 2026vsRemo2-1W
- 05 Sept 2026vsRB Bragantino2-3W
- 30 Aug 2026vsInternacional3-2W
- 07 Oct 2026vsRB Bragantino1-1D
- 27 Sept 2026vsUberlandia0-4W
- 19 Sept 2026vsBotafogo2-0W
- 13 Sept 2026vsVitoria2-2D
- 06 Sept 2026vsCoritiba1-2W
Bahia vs Mirassol: form and season numbers
Bahia take a form score of 4.4 out of 10 into this Brasileirao fixture, against 6.1 for Mirassol. Bahia have 3 wins and 2 defeats in their last 5, while Mirassol have 3 wins and 2 draws in theirs. Across the season Bahia average 1.5 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per game, Mirassol 1.4 and 1.3. Bahia have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their matches this season, Mirassol in 30%. In their last 3 meetings Bahia have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 1. Bahia sit 6th on 46 points, Mirassol 15th on 33.
Form, head-to-head and season statistics are free to read. The model's predictions for this fixture are in the cards above.
Bahia vs Mirassol prediction: table gap meets a tight head to head
Bahia arrive as the form table's steadier side on paper, sitting 5th with 46 points from 28 games, 10 places and 14 points above a Mirassol side stuck in 15th on 32. Yet Formatic's form bands call both teams steady, with the slight edge actually sitting with the visitors, a reminder that league position and recent trajectory are not always telling the same story here.
Bahia's underlying numbers back up their table spot more than their very last match did. The 1-2 loss away to Atletico Paranaense on 20 September snapped a four match unbeaten run that had included wins over Remo (2-1), RB Bragantino (3-2) and Internacional (3-2). Across their last 10 in all, Bahia have scored in 8 of 10 and kept 3 clean sheets while winning 4 and drawing 5, a pattern of a team that rarely goes missing in attack, 43 goals scored this league season against 35 conceded, for a per game split of 1.54 to 1.25.
Mirassol's season tells a rougher story defensively, 42 conceded in 28 league games against only 33 scored, a goal difference of -9 that explains the gap to Bahia in the table. But their most recent competitive form has picked up: a 2-0 win at home to Botafogo on 19 September and a 2-1 win away to Coritiba on 6 September sit either side of a 2-2 draw with Vitoria, and their derived totals from the last 10 show 3 wins and 5 draws against just 2 losses, with 14 scored and 13 conceded. The one alarming result in that sample is the 1-5 home defeat to Flamengo on 16 August, a reminder that when Mirassol's defence cracks, it can crack badly.
The head to head suggests this fixture rarely settles into a cagey afternoon. All 3 of the last meetings produced goals at both ends, with 3.67 goals per meeting and over 2.5 goals in 2 of those 3 games, including a 5-1 Mirassol win in August 2025 and a 2-1 Bahia win in April 2026 sandwiching a 1-1 draw the year before that. Bahia's shot numbers, 13.8 attempts and 4.7 corners per game across their sample, point to a team comfortable creating chances, while Mirassol's expected goals figure of 0.71 per game sits well below their actual scoring output, hinting at either finishing above the run of play or defensive generosity feeding their numbers from the other end. With Bahia's firmer home platform against a Mirassol side capable of both discipline and collapse, this looks set up as an open contest with goals at both ends more likely than a shutout.
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