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    Serie B · kickoff 20:00
    Upcoming
    Benevento
    Benevento
    15th in the table
    WDWLL
    vs
    Sudtirol
    Sudtirol
    7th in the table
    DDWDW
    how we see it finishing
    41%
    Benevento
    28%
    Draw
    31%
    Sudtirol

    The market rates Sudtirol at 26%, so we are 5 points higher than the price implies.

    Our own numbers, from the goal rates the model fits for each side.

    We expect around 2.3 goalsWe make it 1 - 1
    most likely scores1-113%ours1-012%0-111%0-010%2-18%

    Our score is the one that fits the goals we expect, so it is not always the biggest percentage above: the single likeliest score is usually a low scoring draw, and even that lands only about 12% of the time. This is the model's working, not a tip. The bets it leads to are below.

    12.12
    X3.11
    23.66

    How this scoreline is calculated

    What we would back

    Powered by Formatic AI
    Match resultTop Pick
    Benevento or Draw@ 1.25
    7/10
    Benevento winning or the draw covers two of the three results, 69% between them. Only Sudtirol winning beats it, at 31%.
    GoalsValue
    Under 2.5 Goals@ 1.54
    5/10
    We make the total 2.3 goals, so Under 2.5 Goals lands 60%. The line below, Under 1.5, is 33%.
    Second goals lineBanker
    Under 3.5 Goals@ 1.18
    9/10
    Under 3.5 Goals lands 80%. The line below, Under 2.5, is 60%.

    Top Pick is the selection our model backs most strongly on this match, not the longest price. It is often a short one. Banker is the shortest priced call we rate highly, and Value the longest. Every one is published before kickoff and settled in public.

    Benevento

    Form comparison

    Sudtirol

    6.6
    Form scoreout of 10
    4.0
    Form score: Benevento 6.6, Sudtirol 4.0
    2.10
    Goals scoredper game, last 10
    0.60
    Goals scored: Benevento 2.10, Sudtirol 0.60
    1.60
    Goals concededper game, last 10, lower is better
    1.30
    Goals conceded: Benevento 1.60, Sudtirol 1.30
    strong
    Opposition facedlast 10
    weak

    Where those opponents sat in the table: strong means they averaged roughly the top 40%, weak roughly the bottom 40%, mixed in between.

    Opposition faced: Benevento strong, Sudtirol weak

    The form score weights every result and every goal by where the opponent sat in the table, so five wins over the bottom of the table score below five over the top.

    0/5Benevento
    Clean Sheetslast 5 games
    Sudtirol4/5
    0/5Benevento
    Failed to Scorelast 5 games
    Sudtirol2/5
    2.1Benevento
    Goals For per game
    Sudtirol0.6
    1.6Benevento
    Goals Against per game
    Sudtirol1.3
    0Benevento
    Win Streakmatches
    Sudtirol1
    Season averages • Benevento: 10 matches • Sudtirol: 10 matches • Refreshed weekly
    Benevento
    Benevento
    Solid6.6/10
    WDWLL
    Over 2.5 goals
    5/5
    BTTS
    5/5
    Clean sheet
    0/5
    Scored in
    5/5
    Sudtirol
    Sudtirol
    Mixed4.0/10
    DDWDW
    Over 2.5 goals
    1/5
    BTTS
    1/5
    Clean sheet
    4/5
    Scored in
    3/5
    Last 5 meetings
    0W - 1D - 1L from Benevento's perspective
    • 01 Mar 2023Benevento0-2Sudtirol
    • 09 Oct 2022Sudtirol1-1Benevento
    Benevento
    Benevento
    Last 5 matches
    • 22 Aug 2026vsModena1-2L
    • 14 Aug 2026vsFiorentina4-1L
    • 09 Aug 2026vsRavenna5-3W
    • 01 Aug 2026vsFrosinone2-2D
    • 31 Jul 2026vsVis Pesaro1-2W
    Sudtirol
    Sudtirol
    Last 5 matches
    • 22 Aug 2026vsVirtus Entella1-0W
    • 15 Aug 2026vsCatanzaro2-2D
    • 07 Aug 2026vsVirtus Verona1-0W
    • 25 Jul 2026vs1. FC Kaiserslautern0-0D
    • 22 May 2026vsBari0-0D
    PosTeamPts
    5Arezzo3
    6Padova3
    7Sudtirol3
    8Palermo3
    9Empoli3
    13Avellino0
    14Carrarese0
    15Benevento0
    16Hellas Verona0
    17Pisa0
    Updated daily

    Benevento vs Sudtirol: form and season numbers

    Benevento take a form score of 6.6 out of 10 into this Serie B fixture, against 4.0 for Sudtirol. Benevento have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in their last 5, while Sudtirol have 2 wins and 3 draws in theirs. Across the season Benevento average 2.1 goals scored and 1.6 conceded per game, Sudtirol 0.6 and 1.3. Benevento have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their matches this season, Sudtirol in 50%. In their last 2 meetings Benevento have won 0, drawn 1 and lost 1. Benevento sit 15th on 0 points, Sudtirol 7th on 3.

    Form, head-to-head and season statistics are free to read. The model's predictions for this fixture are in the cards above.

    Tomorrow's top pick, free, the moment it drops

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