The model's forecast cards
Powered by Formatic AITop Pick is the model's top pick: the card that stands out most against what its market usually shows in the model's own numbers. It is not a judgement on the price. Every card is published before kickoff and settled in public.
The market rates Benfica at 79%, so we are 17 points lower than the price implies.
Our own numbers, from the goal rates the model fits for each side.
Our score is the one that fits the goals we expect, so it is not always the biggest percentage above: the single likeliest score is usually a low scoring draw, and even that lands only about 12% of the time. This is the model's working, not a tip. The bets it leads to are above.
How this scoreline is calculated
Benfica
Form comparisonCeltic
The form score weights every result and every goal by where the opponent sat in the table, so five wins over the bottom of the table score below five over the top.
- 20 Nov 2012Benfica2-1Celtic
- 19 Sept 2012Celtic0-0Benfica
- 11 Oct 2026vsVitória SC2-0W
- 20 Sept 2026vsFC Porto3-1L
- 16 Sept 2026vsAC Milan0-2W
- 13 Sept 2026vsGIL Vicente3-1W
- 09 Sept 2026vsMoreirense0-4W
- 11 Oct 2026vsMotherwell0-2W
- 20 Sept 2026vsRangers0-1L
- 17 Sept 2026vsFerencvarosi TC1-3L
- 13 Sept 2026vsRangers3-0L
- 09 Sept 2026vsST Johnstone0-1W
Benfica vs Celtic: form and season numbers
Benfica take a form score of 9.0 out of 10 into this Europa League fixture, against 5.5 for Celtic. Benfica have 4 wins and 1 defeat in their last 5, while Celtic have 2 wins and 3 defeats in theirs. Across the season Benfica average 3.0 goals scored and 0.7 conceded per game, Celtic 1.5 and 1.4. Benfica have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their matches this season, Celtic in 40%. In their last 2 meetings Benfica have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 0. Benfica sit 7th on 3 points, Celtic 28th on 0.
Form, head-to-head and season statistics are free to read. The model's predictions for this fixture are in the cards above.
Benfica vs Celtic prediction: Benfica's form gap looks decisive
Benfica sit 7th in a 36-team table after a single round, having opened with a 2-0 win that leaves them with a goal difference of plus 2 and nothing conceded yet. Celtic occupy 28th after an opening 1-3 loss, already minus 2 on goal difference, and the table gap between the two, 21 places and 3 points, lines up with everything else in this brief.
The form picture only widens that gap. Benfica's last 10 in all competitions reads 8 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss, with 29 scored and just 8 conceded, scoring in all 10 and keeping 4 clean sheets. The one blemish in that run was an away defeat at FC Porto, 1-3, but either side of it sits a 2-0 win away at AC Milan in the Europa League and a 7-0 away win at Casa Pia, and Benfica's season profile backs the eye test: 16.7 shots and 61.3 percent possession per game, with a clean sheet in 40 percent of outings and a scoring blank in precisely none. That is an excellent band of form by Formatic's own measure, and it shows.
Celtic's last 10 is more jagged: 6 wins, 0 draws and 4 losses, 17 scored and 14 conceded, with 4 clean sheets but 2 blanks in those 10 games. The spread tells the story. Wins over ST Johnstone (1-0), ST Mirren (2-1), Aberdeen (3-0) and Falkirk (2-1) sit alongside a 1-5 defeat away to Lask Linz and a 0-3 loss away to Rangers, plus a 1-3 home defeat to Ferencvarosi TC in the Europa League and most recently a 0-1 home loss to Rangers. That is a steady band rather than anything sharper, and the shots on target figure, 5.9 per game against Benfica's 7.1, points to a side creating enough but not always finishing it, while conceding at a rate that has already produced heavy scorelines this season.
The head to head sample is tiny but points the same way: of the last 2 meetings, Benfica won one 2-1 and the other finished 0-0, both teams scoring in just 1 of those 2 and only 1 of 2 going over 2.5 goals, for 1.5 goals per meeting across the pair. Low-scoring, cagey contests have been the norm between these two whenever they've met, though Benfica's attacking numbers this season, scoring in every match played, suggest they will look to break that pattern rather than settle for it. With Benfica's form band excellent against Celtic's steady, and a defensive record at one end that contrasts sharply with a leaky one at the other, this looks like a game where Benfica should control possession and chances throughout, with Celtic's hopes resting on keeping things tight rather than matching Benfica shot for shot.
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