What we would back
Powered by Formatic AITop Pick is the card that stands out most against what its market usually offers, so it is rarely the shortest price here and not always the best rated. Banker is the shortest price under 1.25, and Value the longest over 1.60. Every one is published before kickoff and settled in public.
The market rates Bolton at 35%, so we are 5 points higher than the price implies.
Our own numbers, from the goal rates the model fits for each side.
Our score is the one that fits the goals we expect, so it is not always the biggest percentage above: the single likeliest score is usually a low scoring draw, and even that lands only about 12% of the time. This is the model's working, not a tip. The bets it leads to are above.
How this scoreline is calculated
Bolton
Form comparisonStoke City
Where those opponents sat in the table: strong means they averaged roughly the top 40%, weak roughly the bottom 40%, mixed in between.
Opposition faced: Bolton mixed, Stoke City mixedThe form score weights every result and every goal by where the opponent sat in the table, so five wins over the bottom of the table score below five over the top.
- 10 Oct 2026Bolton1-2Stoke City
- 30 Jul 2024Bolton0-1Stoke City
- 29 Dec 2018Bolton0-0Stoke City
- 02 Oct 2018Stoke City2-0Bolton
- 13 May 2012Stoke City2-2Bolton
- 10 Oct 2026vsStoke City1-2L
- 20 Sept 2026vsNorwich3-4W
- 12 Sept 2026vsCardiff1-0W
- 08 Sept 2026vsWest Ham2-3L
- 05 Sept 2026vsMillwall4-0L
- 10 Oct 2026vsBolton1-2W
- 19 Sept 2026vsSheffield Utd2-1W
- 12 Sept 2026vsWatford1-2W
- 08 Sept 2026vsCardiff1-1D
- 05 Sept 2026vsCharlton4-0W
Bolton vs Stoke City: form and season numbers
Bolton take a form score of 2.9 out of 10 into this Championship fixture, against 5.8 for Stoke City. Bolton have 2 wins and 3 defeats in their last 5, while Stoke City have 4 wins and 1 draw in theirs. Across the season Bolton average 1.2 goals scored and 1.8 conceded per game, Stoke City 1.6 and 1.4. Bolton have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their matches this season, Stoke City in 20%. In their last 8 meetings Bolton have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 4. Bolton sit 15th on 10 points, Stoke City 9th on 13.
Form, head-to-head and season statistics are free to read. The model's predictions for this fixture are in the cards above.
Bolton vs Stoke City prediction: steady visitors chase a clear gap
Bolton sit 15th on 10 points from 8 games, Stoke City 7th on 13, and the 8 places and 3 points between them in the Championship table are echoed by the form guide, which gives Stoke City a clear gap over a side Formatic's model currently rates patchy. Goal difference tells the same story: Bolton's -4 against Stoke City's +1, built on 1.38 scored and 1.88 conceded per game at one end and 1.62 scored, 1.50 conceded at the other.
Bolton's last 10 across all competitions read W4 D1 L5, with 12 scored and 16 conceded, and a clean sheet in just 3 of those 10. The shape is streaky rather than poor: a 4-3 away win at Norwich and a 1-0 home win over Cardiff sit either side of defeats by scores of 2-3 to West Ham, 0-4 at Millwall and 2-3 at Sheffield Utd, plus a 0-0 at QPR. They have scored in 6 of 10, so the goals are there, but 16 conceded in 10 says the opposite is just as likely, especially since this is a side that failed to score in 40 percent of its 9-match season sample and kept a clean sheet in only 30 percent.
Stoke City's numbers are more settled. Their last 10 show W5 D2 L3, 16 scored, 13 conceded, and crucially they have scored in all 10, with clean sheets in 3. Recent form includes a 2-1 home win over Sheffield Utd, a 2-1 away win at Watford, a 1-1 draw at Cardiff and a 4-0 home win over Charlton, interrupted only by a 1-4 loss away to Wolves and a 1-3 defeat at Southampton. A season sample showing 0 percent of games without a goal lines up with that unbroken scoring run and suggests Stoke City's attack travels reasonably well even when the result does not go their way.
The head to head is tighter than the table gap implies: from the 5 itemised meetings Stoke City have won 2, Bolton have won 1, and 2 were drawn, including a goalless stalemate in December 2018 and a 2-2 in May 2012. Bolton's 5-0 win in November 2011 is the outlier in a series that has otherwise favoured the away side, with Stoke City's 1-0 win in July 2024 the most recent entry. With Stoke City's steadier form and superior defensive record per game against a Bolton side that leaks goals even when it scores, this looks set up as an open game where Stoke City carry the better chance of controlling it, with Bolton needing an early goal to turn it into the chaotic, high-scoring shootout their recent results suggest they are more comfortable playing.
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