Bournemouth arrive in excellent form with a weighted score of 8.1 out of 10 across their last five outings, edging Sunderland's strong 7.2 rating by 0.9 points. The gap may appear narrow, but the hosts have found the net 22 times across those fixtures while conceding 8, and they have scored in all 5 matches without keeping a single clean sheet. That offensive consistency, reflected in their 1.55 expected goals per game over a 5-match sample, gives them a platform even against a Sunderland side that has posted 2 clean sheets in their last 5.

Sunderland's recent record shows 3 wins from 5, with 7 goals scored and 6 conceded. They have managed clean sheets in 30 percent of their 4-match competitive sample this season and failed to score in 20 percent, a more cautious profile than Bournemouth's relentless attacking output. The visitors average 1.13 expected goals per game, 13.2 shots and 3.8 on target, numbers that suggest they will test Bournemouth's defence but may lack the firepower to match the hosts' 14 shots and 4.6 on target per outing. Sunderland's discipline in possession, holding 47.2 percent on average, is slightly below Bournemouth's 50.2 percent, and they average 11.8 fouls to the hosts' 12.

The head to head record across the last 6 meetings is perfectly balanced, with Bournemouth claiming 2 wins, Sunderland 2 and 2 draws. Those fixtures have averaged 2.5 goals, with both teams scoring in 4 of the 6. The most recent meeting in February 2026 ended 1-1, while Sunderland's 3-2 win in November 2025 was the highest-scoring contest of the recent sequence. Only 2 of the 6 have gone over 2.5 goals, suggesting tight affairs rather than shootouts, yet both teams found the net in two-thirds of those encounters.

Bournemouth have scored in every one of their last 5 matches, a run that includes the 10-1 thrashing of Genoa and a 5-2 victory at Augsburg in pre-season, while Sunderland have kept consecutive clean sheets against Lens and Wrexham. The hosts' failure to register a single clean sheet in 5 outings points to defensive fragility, and Sunderland have the quality to exploit it, having scored in 4 of their last 5. With 4.2 corners per game for Sunderland against Bournemouth's 6.2, set pieces may offer an additional route, particularly if the visitors can convert pressure into chances around the box.

Bournemouth's superior form rating and home advantage position them as favourites, but Sunderland's ability to keep clean sheets in 30 percent of competitive fixtures and score in most others makes this closer than the form gap suggests. The head to head pattern of both teams scoring in 4 of 6 meetings aligns with Bournemouth's perfect scoring run and Sunderland's defensive solidity appearing selective rather than guaranteed. Expect goals at both ends, with the hosts' 22 scored across their last 5 suggesting they will carry the greater threat if they can manage Sunderland's counterattacking efficiency.