Brighton and Hove Albion enter this fixture with a 1.9-point form advantage over their visitors, rating 6.5 out of 10 against Crystal Palace's patchy 4.6. The hosts have won 3 of their last 4 matches, scoring 8 goals and keeping 2 clean sheets across that sequence, including a 1-0 victory over Bologna and a 3-0 success against AS Roma in their most recent outings. While both of those wins came in pre-season friendlies, the confidence built from finding the net in 3 of those 4 matches offers a platform that Crystal Palace have struggled to match.

The visitors arrive with just 2 wins from their last 5, conceding 8 goals in the process and managing to score in only 2 of those fixtures. A 3-0 defeat away to SC Freiburg in their most recent friendly underlined defensive fragility that has yielded clean sheets in just 20 percent of their season sample. Crystal Palace have failed to score in 40 percent of matches this campaign, a concerning rate given Brighton's ability to shut out opponents in 44 percent of their fixtures. The hosts also dominate the underlying metrics, averaging 61.5 percent possession and 5.3 shots on target per game compared to Palace's 41.3 percent possession and 3.7 shots on target.

Recent history between these sides tells a different story. Crystal Palace have won 3 of the last 10 meetings to Brighton's 2, with 5 draws, and claimed the most recent encounter 1-0 in February 2026. The visitors also took a 3-1 victory in December 2024 and won 2-1 in April 2025, suggesting they have found ways to trouble Brighton even when the broader form picture might not favour them. Both teams have scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings, and the average of 2.2 goals per game points to fixtures that have been competitive without regularly exploding into high-scoring affairs, with over 2.5 goals landing in just 3 of those 10.

Brighton's superior shot volume of 14 per game, combined with 6 corners and 1.66 expected goals, suggests they create enough quality chances to overcome a Palace side conceding freely in recent weeks. The 6-match sample for the hosts against a 3-match sample for the visitors reflects differing levels of competitive action, but the gap in clean sheet rates and scoring consistency points toward a home side better equipped to control this fixture. Palace's habit of failing to find the net in 2 of every 5 matches could prove decisive if Brighton's defence, which has conceded 6 goals across 4 matches but still managed 2 clean sheets, can replicate the discipline shown in their shutout wins over Bologna and AS Roma.

The numbers point toward a Brighton side with the form, possession dominance and defensive solidity to extend their winning run, even if Palace's head to head record offers a cautionary note. The gap in expected goals is marginal at 1.66 to 1.76, but the gulf in actual output and chance creation this season gives the hosts a clear edge. Whether Brighton can overcome their visitors' recent knack of taking points from this fixture may hinge on their ability to convert territorial control into the 5.3 shots on target per game that has defined their campaign so far.