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    Championship · kickoff 19:45
    Upcoming
    Cardiff City
    Cardiff City
    21st in the table
    LDLWL
    We make it
    1-1
    2.5 goals expected
    Watford
    Watford
    20th in the table
    LWLLL

    What we would back

    Powered by Formatic AI
    Match resultBanker
    Cardiff City or Draw@ 1.19
    7/10
    Cardiff City winning or the draw covers two of the three results, 66% between them. Only Watford winning beats it, at 34%.
    GoalsTop Pick
    Under 3.5 Goals@ 1.63
    8/10
    Under 3.5 Goals lands 76%. The line below, Under 2.5, is 55%.
    Second goals lineValue
    Under 2.5 Goals@ 2.50
    5/10
    We make the total 2.5 goals, so Under 2.5 Goals lands 55%. The line below, Under 1.5, is 29%.

    Top Pick is the card that stands out most against what its market usually offers, so it is rarely the shortest price here and not always the best rated. Banker is the shortest price under 1.25, and Value the longest over 1.60. Every one is published before kickoff and settled in public.

    how we see it finishing
    39%
    Cardiff City
    27%
    Draw
    34%
    Watford

    The market rates Cardiff City at 57%, so we are 18 points lower than the price implies.

    Our own numbers, from the goal rates the model fits for each side.

    We expect around 2.5 goalsWe make it 1 - 1

    Our score is the one that fits the goals we expect, so it is not always the biggest percentage above: the single likeliest score is usually a low scoring draw, and even that lands only about 12% of the time. This is the model's working, not a tip. The bets it leads to are above.

    11.65
    X4.22
    24.47

    How this scoreline is calculated

    Cardiff City

    Form comparison

    Watford

    3.4
    Form scoreout of 10, last 10 matches
    1.8
    Form score: Cardiff City 3.4, Watford 1.8
    1.20
    Goals scoredper game, last 10
    0.80
    Goals scored: Cardiff City 1.20, Watford 0.80
    1.60
    Goals concededper game, last 10, lower is better
    1.90
    Goals conceded: Cardiff City 1.60, Watford 1.90
    mixed
    Opposition facedlast 10
    mixed

    Where those opponents sat in the table: strong means they averaged roughly the top 40%, weak roughly the bottom 40%, mixed in between.

    Opposition faced: Cardiff City mixed, Watford mixed

    The form score weights every result and every goal by where the opponent sat in the table, so five wins over the bottom of the table score below five over the top.

    0/5Cardiff City
    Clean Sheetslast 5 games
    Watford0/5
    2/5Cardiff City
    Failed to Scorelast 5 games
    Watford3/5
    1.2Cardiff City
    Goals For per game
    Watford0.8
    1.6Cardiff City
    Goals Against per game
    Watford1.9
    1.9Cardiff City
    Yellow Cards per game
    Watford2.3
    0Cardiff City
    Win Streakmatches
    Watford0
    Season averages • Cardiff City: 10 matches • Watford: 10 matches • Refreshed weekly
    Cardiff City
    Cardiff City
    Mixed3.4/10
    Form score, last 10 matches
    LDLWL
    Over 2.5 goals
    2/5
    BTTS
    3/5
    Clean sheet
    0/5
    Scored in
    3/5
    Watford
    Watford
    Poor1.8/10
    Form score, last 10 matches
    LWLLL
    Over 2.5 goals
    3/5
    BTTS
    2/5
    Clean sheet
    0/5
    Scored in
    2/5
    Last 5 meetings
    4W - 2D - 4L from Cardiff City's perspective
    • 14 Jan 2025Cardiff1-1Watford
    • 29 Dec 2024Watford1-2Cardiff
    • 03 Feb 2024Watford0-1Cardiff
    • 07 Oct 2023Cardiff1-1Watford
    • 19 Apr 2023Watford1-3Cardiff
    Cardiff City
    Cardiff City
    Last 5 matches
    • 10 Oct 2026vsBlackburn2-1L
    • 19 Sept 2026vsCharlton3-1W
    • 12 Sept 2026vsBolton1-0L
    • 08 Sept 2026vsStoke City1-1D
    • 05 Sept 2026vsPortsmouth2-0L
    Watford
    Watford
    Last 5 matches
    • 10 Oct 2026vsBurnley0-4L
    • 18 Sept 2026vsBristol City1-0L
    • 12 Sept 2026vsStoke City1-2L
    • 08 Sept 2026vsPreston2-1W
    • 05 Sept 2026vsWest Brom1-0L
    PosTeamPts
    18Norwich City9
    19Portsmouth8
    20Watford8
    21Cardiff City7
    22Burnley7
    23Derby County6
    Updated daily

    Cardiff City vs Watford: form and season numbers

    Cardiff City take a form score of 3.4 out of 10 into this Championship fixture, against 1.8 for Watford. Cardiff City have 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats in their last 5, while Watford have 1 win and 4 defeats in theirs. Across the season Cardiff City average 1.2 goals scored and 1.6 conceded per game, Watford 0.8 and 1.9. Cardiff City have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their matches this season, Watford in 0%. In their last 10 meetings Cardiff City have won 4, drawn 2 and lost 4. Cardiff City sit 21st on 7 points, Watford 20th on 8.

    Form, head-to-head and season statistics are free to read. The model's predictions for this fixture are in the cards above.

    Tomorrow's top pick, free, the moment it drops

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