Alavés arrive at Balaídos 10 places and 3 points above their hosts, though that gap reflects one completed fixture rather than a season's work. The visitors sit 2nd on 3 points after opening with a 3-0 home win over Getafe, while Celta Vigo have yet to play a competitive match in 2026-27 and occupy 12th on zero points. Espanyol lead the table on 3 points, meaning Alavés share top spot on goals scored, having netted 3 and conceded none across 90 minutes.

Celta Vigo carry a weighted form score of 7 out of 10 into the season opener, marginally ahead of Alavés on 6.6, though both figures derive entirely from pre-season work. Across five club friendlies, Celta posted 2 wins and 3 draws without defeat, scoring 10 and conceding 6. They found the net in all five outings, including a 4-1 victory away to Sassuolo and draws of 2-2 at home to Academico Viseu and away to SC Braga, before settling for 1-1 results against Napoli and a 1-0 win over Sporting Gijon. That run delivered one clean sheet in five and an average of 2 goals scored per match. Over the same sample Celta averaged 3.2 shots on target, 2.4 corners and 46.2 percent possession per game, with an expected goals figure of 1.02.

Alavés compiled 3 wins and 2 draws from their own five-match warm-up schedule, netting 9 and conceding just 2. Three of those five matches ended in clean sheets, including narrow 1-0 and 3-0 wins away to Girona and at home to Castellón, plus draws of 1-1 against Racing Santander and Eibar. Their competitive bow against Getafe reproduced the 3-0 scoreline and brought a fourth shutout from six outings overall. Across that expanded sample Alavés averaged 5.2 shots on target, 5 corners and 1.35 expected goals per game, alongside 39.7 percent possession and 3.2 yellow cards. They have scored in all six matches and kept goal-shy opponents at bay in half of them, suggesting defensive organisation ahead of attacking flair.

The head to head ledger across the last 10 meetings shows Celta Vigo with 6 wins to Alavés' 2, plus 2 draws. Those fixtures averaged 3.1 goals, with both teams scoring in 6 and over 2.5 goals landing in 6. The five most recent clashes span two seasons: Alavés edged a thriller 4-3 in March 2026, Celta won 1-0 away in November 2025, the sides drew 1-1 in January 2025, Celta prevailed 2-1 in August 2024, and Alavés recorded their only other win in the sample with a 3-0 home victory in April 2024. That pattern points to volatility rather than dominance, with four of the five decided by a single goal and the outliers running 4-3 and 3-0 in opposite directions.

Alavés bring the only competitive result to the table and a defensive record that has yet to yield a goal in La Liga, while Celta's longer scoring streak and historical edge in this fixture suggest the opening weekend will hinge on whether the visitors' early-season solidity can withstand a side who have found the net in every outing since mid-July. Formatic's model scores this fixture closer to kick-off, but the 3-point gap and Alavés' clean-sheet thread against a Celta attack averaging over 3 shots on target per game sets up a contest between established patterns and untested league sharpness.