Celta Vigo carry a form score of 6.9 out of 10 into the new La Liga season, comfortably ahead of Osasuna's patchy 3.7, opening a gap of 3.2 points that sets the tone for Thursday's encounter. While both sides have spent the summer in friendlies rather than competitive action, the hosts have posted an unbeaten run across those five warm-up matches, collecting 2 wins and 3 draws while scoring 10 and conceding 6. That record includes a 4-1 win away to Sassuolo and a 1-0 home victory over Sporting Gijon, with Celta finding the net in all 5 outings. Osasuna, meanwhile, arrive on the back of consecutive defeats, losing 2-0 at home to Al Ain and 1-2 away to Napoli in their most recent run-outs, and have managed 3 wins against 2 losses from their last 5, scoring 7 and conceding 6.

The season profile drawn from those friendlies offers further contrast. Celta have kept their lines tight, conceding in 4 of 5 matches but maintaining a 30 percent clean sheet rate and avoiding a blank in all 5 outings. Their expected goals sit at 1.02 per match from 7 shots and 3.2 on target, alongside 2.4 corners and 46.2 percent possession. Osasuna have posted a stronger underlying threat with 1.21 expected goals per game, generating 14.4 shots and 5 on target, but their clean sheet rate drops to 10 percent and they have failed to score in 1 of 5. The visitors also carry a heavier card burden, averaging 13.4 fouls and 2.2 yellows per match against Celta's 11.2 fouls and 1.4 bookings.

The head to head record across the last 10 meetings is locked at 4 wins apiece with 2 draws, but the recent trend leans toward narrow margins and alternating results. The last five itemised encounters have produced 4 different winners and just one draw, with Osasuna edging the most recent clash 2-1 at Celta in February 2026 before Celta reversed that scoreline to win 3-2 away in October 2025. Earlier still, Celta shut Osasuna out 1-0 at home in February 2025 and won 3-0 away in February 2024, either side of a 3-2 home defeat in September 2024. Across all 10, both teams have scored in 4 matches and over 2.5 goals has landed in 5, with an average of 2.4 goals per meeting.

The numbers point to a home side better prepared and more consistent across the summer, facing opponents whose defensive fragility and recent losses leave them vulnerable at the start of a new campaign. Celta's ability to score in every pre-season outing and avoid defeat suggests they will test Osasuna's creaking backline early, while the visitors' 10 percent clean sheet rate and heavier foul count hint at a side likely to concede both chances and discipline. The head to head pattern of close, swing fixtures remains relevant, but the 3.2-point form gap and contrasting momentum make Celta the sharper proposition. Whether that translates into a home win or another tight scoreline will depend on whether Osasuna's shot volume can overcome Celta's superior cohesion, but the data favours the hosts to claim all three points in a match likely to feature goals at both ends and around 2 or 3 in total.