Ceuta host Oviedo on Sunday with both sides seeking their first Segunda División win of the campaign, though the hosts arrive in far more desperate circumstances after opening with a heavy defeat. Ceuta sit bottom of the 22-team table on 0 points following a 1-5 thrashing at Andorra, while Oviedo claimed a point from a goalless home draw with Granada and occupy 15th place, 7 places and 1 point above their hosts.

The league positions tell only part of the story. Ceuta have scored 1 goal and conceded 5 in their sole competitive outing, averaging 1.00 scored and 5.00 conceded per game, but their broader preparation across 5 pre-season friendlies and the opener yielded 7 goals scored and 10 conceded. They won 2-1 at home to Malaga and 3-1 away to Cadiz in friendlies before the Andorra collapse, giving them a weighted form score of 5.4 out of 10 despite the opening-day humiliation. Across those 6 matches Ceuta have averaged 9.3 shots per game and 4 on target, generating 1.28 expected goals, and they have found the net in 4 of their last 5 outings. The defensive record is the alarm: 0 clean sheets in 5, and 20 percent across the 6-match sample.

Oviedo arrive with a contrasting profile, built on control rather than creation. Their 0-0 draw with Granada extended a curious pattern: across 5 matches they have scored in only 3, blanking in their competitive opener and in two pre-season draws with Deportivo La Coruna and, most recently, at home to Granada. The sample shows 8 goals scored and 4 conceded, with clean sheets in 3 of 5, but 70 percent of those games saw Oviedo fail to score. They won 3-2 at home to Le Havre and hammered Ponferradina 4-0 in friendlies, yet managed only 8.2 shots per game and 1.6 on target across the set, generating 0.58 expected goals. That figure sits well below Ceuta's 1.28 and suggests a side yet to find rhythm in attack despite marginally better possession at 50.8 percent.

Form scores favour Ceuta by 0.7 points, 5.4 to 4.7, with Oviedo's mark labelled patchy. The visitors' defensive solidity in pre-season has not translated into attacking threat, and facing a Ceuta side that has conceded 10 goals in 5 matches but created chances at a higher expected rate presents a puzzle. Ceuta's 49.8 percent possession and higher shot volume suggest they will press for a response to the Andorra defeat on home ground, while Oviedo's tendency to keep things tight but sterile may suit a side desperate not to lose rather than one looking to win. The goal expectancy gap is wide: Ceuta generate more than double Oviedo's expected goals per match, yet ship goals at an alarming rate. If Oviedo can exploit that fragility without reverting to the blanks that have marked 70 percent of their games, the 1-point cushion in the table could grow. If Ceuta's attacking intent translates and Oviedo remain as blunt as their 1.6 shots on target per game suggests, the hosts may claim their first points despite sitting bottom after one round.