CF Estrela welcome a Casa Pia side yet to register a point this season, with the visitors anchored to 18th place on 0 points from 3 matches and carrying a goal difference of minus 10. Estrela sit 7 places and 2 points above their opponents in 11th, having collected a pair of draws from their opening 2 league fixtures to reach 2 points. The hosts have scored 4 and conceded 4 in those games, maintaining a perfectly level difference, while Casa Pia have failed to find the net in all 3 competitive outings and shipped 10 at the other end.

Form paints an even starker picture. Estrela carry a weighted score of 6.9 out of 10 across their last 5 matches, a strong return built on 2 wins and 3 draws without defeat, 10 goals scored and 7 conceded. They have found the net in all 5 of those fixtures, including a 2-2 draw away to Alverca in their most recent outing and an identical scoreline at home to Sporting CP before that. Casa Pia, by contrast, post a form rating of just 2.3 out of 10, rooted in 5 straight defeats across which they have managed only 2 goals and surrendered 17. The competitive collapse began with a 1-0 loss at Maritimo, escalated through a 7-0 home hammering by Benfica, and continued with a 2-0 reverse at Gil Vicente last time out. The form gap of 4.6 in Estrela's favour is among the widest on the weekend's slate.

Casa Pia's season profile across a 7-match sample reveals deeper structural problems: 0.94 expected goals per game, scoring in only 50 percent of fixtures and keeping clean sheets in 30 percent. They average 10.7 shots and 3.7 on target per outing, numbers that have yet to translate into league goals. Estrela, unbeaten in the league and scoring at 2.00 per game, present a live threat at both ends, even if their 2.00 conceded per match suggests vulnerability when Casa Pia do finally break through.

The head to head record across the last 10 meetings splits 5 wins for Estrela, 4 for Casa Pia and 1 draw, with an average of 2.8 goals per fixture. Both teams have scored in 4 of those 10, and 5 have cleared 2.5 goals. The itemised encounters show volatility: Casa Pia won 2-1 in July, Estrela responded with a 4-0 thrashing in March, and before that took a wild 5-3 away victory in November 2025. Casa Pia also claimed narrow 1-0 wins in February 2025 and August 2024, demonstrating they have historically troubled Estrela even when the broader form suggested otherwise.

That history offers Casa Pia a thread of hope, but current evidence points overwhelmingly toward the hosts. Estrela have scored in every fixture since late July, Casa Pia have blanked in every league game this term, and the 4.6 form gap sits alongside a 7-place table separation. The visitors' expected goals output of 0.94 per game and failure to score in half their matches this season suggest they will struggle to exploit Estrela's defensive record, even with 2.00 conceded per game offering some theoretical entry. The numbers frame a home win as the likeliest path, with Estrela's consistency in front of goal and Casa Pia's inability to convert possession into shots on target shaping the contest.