What we would back
Powered by Formatic AITop Pick is the card that stands out most against what its market usually offers, so it is rarely the shortest price here and not always the best rated. Banker is the shortest price under 1.25, and Value the longest over 1.60. Every one is published before kickoff and settled in public.
The market rates Chicago Fire FC at 49%, so we are 6 points lower than the price implies.
Our own numbers, from the goal rates the model fits for each side.
Our score is the one that fits the goals we expect, so it is not always the biggest percentage above: the single likeliest score is usually a low scoring draw, and even that lands only about 12% of the time. This is the model's working, not a tip. The bets it leads to are above.
How this scoreline is calculated
Chicago Fire FC
Form comparisonNYCFC
Where those opponents sat in the table: strong means they averaged roughly the top 40%, weak roughly the bottom 40%, mixed in between.
Opposition faced: Chicago Fire FC strong, NYCFC mixedThe form score weights every result and every goal by where the opponent sat in the table, so five wins over the bottom of the table score below five over the top.
- 25 Jul 2026New York City FC3-1Chicago Fire
- 14 Sept 2025Chicago Fire1-3New York City FC
- 25 May 2025New York City FC3-1Chicago Fire
- 24 Aug 2024New York City FC2-2Chicago Fire
- 14 Jul 2024Chicago Fire0-0New York City FC
- 07 Oct 2026vsVancouver Whitecaps3-1W
- 26 Sept 2026vsCharlotte0-1W
- 20 Sept 2026vsNashville SC3-0L
- 13 Sept 2026vsNew England Revolution1-2L
- 10 Sept 2026vsInter Miami1-1D
- 26 Sept 2026vsAtlanta United FC2-2D
- 18 Sept 2026vsNew York Red Bulls0-1L
- 13 Sept 2026vsReal Salt Lake0-2W
- 10 Sept 2026vsNew England Revolution1-2L
- 04 Sept 2026vsNashville SC0-0D
Chicago Fire FC vs NYCFC: form and season numbers
Chicago Fire FC take a form score of 5.6 out of 10 into this MLS fixture, against 3.6 for NYCFC. Chicago Fire FC have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in their last 5, while NYCFC have 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats in theirs. Across the season Chicago Fire FC average 1.6 goals scored and 1.7 conceded per game, NYCFC 1.1 and 1.4. Chicago Fire FC have kept a clean sheet in 10% of their matches this season, NYCFC in 20%. In their last 10 meetings Chicago Fire FC have won 0, drawn 3 and lost 7. Chicago Fire FC sit 4th on 45 points, NYCFC 9th on 33.
Form, head-to-head and season statistics are free to read. The model's predictions for this fixture are in the cards above.
Chicago Fire FC vs NYCFC prediction: history favours NYCFC despite the table gap
Chicago Fire FC arrive 5th on 42 points, 9 clear of NYCFC in 9th on 33, yet the head to head record for this fixture tells an entirely different story: NYCFC have won 7 of the last 10 meetings, with the other 3 drawn and Chicago Fire FC yet to claim one. That gap between league position and personal history is the whole story of this preview, and it is why Formatic's market read has this as a marginal favourite for Chicago Fire FC rather than anything more emphatic.
Chicago Fire FC's league placing rests on a +8 goal difference built from 46 scored and 38 conceded across 26 games, but the shape of their last 10 is unmistakably patchy: 3 wins, 4 draws and 3 losses, with 15 scored and 17 conceded. They have found the net in 9 of those 10 matches, including a wild 4-4 away to Toronto FC and a 2-2 at Seattle Sounders, but the defensive concessions keep piling up, 17 in 10 games, and a clean sheet has come just once in that run. The 1-0 away win at Charlotte on 26 September is the form line they will point to, but it followed a 0-3 defeat at Nashville SC a week earlier, and that kind of swing has defined their autumn.
NYCFC's underlying numbers are not far off Chicago Fire FC's on a per game basis, with 1.64 expected goals against 1.29, but the results have not followed: 1 win, 4 draws and 5 losses from the last 10, with only 11 scored and 14 conceded. They have kept 2 clean sheets in that stretch against Chicago Fire FC's 1, and their most recent outing was a 2-2 draw away to Atlanta United FC, sandwiched between a 0-1 home defeat to New York Red Bulls and a battling 2-0 win away to Real Salt Lake. Across the season sample NYCFC have also failed to score in 20 percent of games, double Chicago Fire FC's rate of 10 percent, and that occasional blankness is the one thing working against the history in their favour.
Both sides are scoring more often than they are shutting out opponents, and with Chicago Fire FC conceding 1.46 per game and NYCFC sitting at 1.33, neither defence looks settled enough to promise control. The market's even framing feels right given how close the underlying shot and expected goals numbers are, 12.8 shots to 11.7 in Chicago Fire FC's favour but NYCFC's 1.64 expected goals figure the higher of the two. Given NYCFC's dominant head to head record against a Chicago Fire FC side that scores freely but leaks goals at a similar rate, this has the look of another match where both teams find the net and the head to head pattern again proves stubborn to break.
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