Our model scores this match once both teams have enough recent form to work from, predictions publish in the days before kickoff. Form, head-to-head and season stats are available in the tabs above now.
How this scoreline is calculated
Chicago Fire FC
Form comparisonPhiladelphia Union
Where those opponents sat in the table: strong means they averaged roughly the top 40%, weak roughly the bottom 40%, mixed in between.
Opposition faced: Chicago Fire FC strong, Philadelphia Union weakThe form score weights every result and every goal by where the opponent sat in the table, so five wins over the bottom of the table score below five over the top.
- 21 Mar 2026Philadelphia Union1-2Chicago Fire
- 01 Nov 2025Chicago Fire0-3Philadelphia Union
- 26 Oct 2025Philadelphia Union2-2Chicago Fire
- 23 Aug 2025Philadelphia Union4-0Chicago Fire
- 26 Jun 2025Chicago Fire0-1Philadelphia Union
- 10 Oct 2026vsNew York City FC2-1W
- 07 Oct 2026vsVancouver Whitecaps3-1W
- 26 Sept 2026vsCharlotte0-1W
- 20 Sept 2026vsNashville SC3-0L
- 13 Sept 2026vsNew England Revolution1-2L
- 10 Oct 2026vsReal Salt Lake2-1W
- 26 Sept 2026vsOrlando City SC4-2W
- 20 Sept 2026vsSporting Kansas City3-4W
- 14 Sept 2026vsSan Diego0-5W
- 09 Sept 2026vsFC Cincinnati5-0W
Chicago Fire FC vs Philadelphia Union: form and season numbers
Chicago Fire FC take a form score of 5.7 out of 10 into this MLS fixture, against 8.6 for Philadelphia Union. Chicago Fire FC have 3 wins and 2 defeats in their last 5, while Philadelphia Union have 5 wins in theirs. Across the season Chicago Fire FC average 1.6 goals scored and 1.7 conceded per game, Philadelphia Union 3.1 and 1.2. Chicago Fire FC have kept a clean sheet in 10% of their matches this season, Philadelphia Union in 30%. In their last 10 meetings Chicago Fire FC have won 2, drawn 3 and lost 5. Chicago Fire FC sit 3rd on 48 points, Philadelphia Union 6th on 42.
Form, head-to-head and season statistics are free to read. The model's predictions for this fixture are in the cards above.
Chicago Fire FC vs Philadelphia Union prediction: unbeaten run meets steady hosts
Chicago Fire FC sit 3rd with 48 points, Philadelphia Union 6th with 42, and the 6-point gap between them tells only part of the story once form is added in. That form swing is built on a 10-match run of W8 D2 L0, scoring in every single one of those games and shipping only 12 goals across the sample.
Chicago Fire FC's own last 10 reads W3 D4 L3, with 16 scored and 17 conceded, a far more uneven return that includes a 3-1 win at home to Vancouver Whitecaps and a 2-1 home win over New York City FC either side of a 0-3 defeat away to Nashville SC. They have scored in 9 of those 10 matches but kept only 1 clean sheet, and across the full season they average 1.43 conceded per game, so goals have tended to arrive at both ends even in matches they win. A 4-4 draw away to Toronto FC and a 2-2 at Seattle Sounders further back in the run show a defence that will concede chances even against sides outside the top end of the table.
Philadelphia Union's attacking numbers this autumn are hard to ignore: 4-2 and 5-0 wins at home, a 5-0 away win at San Diego and a 4-3 away success at Sporting Kansas City, with a clean sheet in 3 of those 10 matches alongside an expected goals figure of 1.97 per game in the season profile. They foul more (16.5 per game against Chicago Fire FC's 11.5) and see less of the ball on average (48.1 percent possession to 52.3), but they have failed to score in 0 percent of their sample and carry more shots per game, 16.8 to Chicago Fire FC's 14.9. That combination of control conceded but chances created is exactly the profile of a team riding a hot streak rather than dominating territory.
The head to head sits with Philadelphia Union too: 5 wins from the 5 itemised meetings to Chicago Fire FC's 2, including a 3-0 and a 4-0 away success, against one defeat for the visitors when Chicago Fire FC won 2-1 away back in March 2026. Goals have been a constant feature of this fixture, 3.6 per meeting with both teams scoring in 6 of the 10 and over 2.5 goals in 8 of 10, matching the pattern both sides are showing in their domestic form. Chicago Fire FC's home scoring record and Philadelphia Union's ability to score in every one of their last 10 point toward another high-scoring night, with the visitors' sharper recent form and head to head edge suggesting they are well placed to avoid defeat even if Chicago Fire FC find the net themselves.
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