What we would back
Powered by Formatic AITop Pick is the card that stands out most against what its market usually offers, so it is rarely the shortest price here and not always the best rated. Banker is the shortest price under 1.25, and Value the longest over 1.60. Every one is published before kickoff and settled in public.
The market rates San Jose Earthquakes at 25%, so we are 8 points higher than the price implies.
Our own numbers, from the goal rates the model fits for each side.
Our score is the one that fits the goals we expect, so it is not always the biggest percentage above: the single likeliest score is usually a low scoring draw, and even that lands only about 12% of the time. This is the model's working, not a tip. The bets it leads to are above.
How this scoreline is calculated
Colorado Rapids
Form comparisonSan Jose Earthquakes
Where those opponents sat in the table: strong means they averaged roughly the top 40%, weak roughly the bottom 40%, mixed in between.
Opposition faced: Colorado Rapids mixed, San Jose Earthquakes mixedThe form score weights every result and every goal by where the opponent sat in the table, so five wins over the bottom of the table score below five over the top.
- 11 Oct 2026Colorado Rapids1-1San Jose Earthquakes
- 21 May 2026Colorado Rapids2-0San Jose Earthquakes
- 11 May 2025Colorado Rapids0-2San Jose Earthquakes
- 16 Mar 2025San Jose Earthquakes1-2Colorado Rapids
- 12 May 2024Colorado Rapids2-3San Jose Earthquakes
- 11 Oct 2026vsSan Jose Earthquakes1-1D
- 27 Sept 2026vsLos Angeles Galaxy3-2L
- 20 Sept 2026vsSeattle Sounders3-3D
- 17 Sept 2026vsSt. Louis City0-3L
- 13 Sept 2026vsCF Montreal1-0W
- 11 Oct 2026vsColorado Rapids1-1D
- 27 Sept 2026vsPortland Timbers3-1W
- 19 Sept 2026vsLos Angeles FC2-2D
- 13 Sept 2026vsHouston Dynamo1-0W
- 10 Sept 2026vsSan Diego2-3W
Colorado Rapids vs San Jose Earthquakes: form and season numbers
Colorado Rapids take a form score of 3.4 out of 10 into this MLS fixture, against 4.7 for San Jose Earthquakes. Colorado Rapids have 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5, while San Jose Earthquakes have 3 wins and 2 draws in theirs. Across the season Colorado Rapids average 1.0 goals scored and 1.7 conceded per game, San Jose Earthquakes 1.3 and 1.6. Colorado Rapids have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their matches this season, San Jose Earthquakes in 20%. In their last 10 meetings Colorado Rapids have won 4, drawn 2 and lost 4. Colorado Rapids sit 8th on 37 points, San Jose Earthquakes 4th on 46.
Form, head-to-head and season statistics are free to read. The model's predictions for this fixture are in the cards above.
Colorado Rapids vs San Jose Earthquakes prediction: table gap meets leaky defences
Nine points separate these two in the table, with San Jose Earthquakes sitting 4th on 45 and Colorado Rapids down in 8th on 36, yet neither defence offers much comfort right now. San Jose Earthquakes have conceded 39 in 27 league games this season and Colorado Rapids 38 in the same number, and both have shipped goals heavily in their last 10 matches across competitions, Colorado Rapids letting in 16 and San Jose Earthquakes 19.
Colorado Rapids arrive with a poor form label and it is easy to see why. Across their last 10 they managed just 4 wins and 4 losses, including back to back concessions of three in defeats to Columbus Crew and San Diego, and a 0-3 US Open Cup exit at home to St. Louis City sandwiched among the league results. The 2-3 home loss to Los Angeles Galaxy on 27 September is the most recent form line, and with a goal difference sitting level overall, this is a side that scores in patches, 7 of 10 recently, but leaks goals in bunches, with only 4 clean sheets in that same span.
San Jose Earthquakes carry a patchy tag themselves but the shape of their season looks different. They have scored 49 in the league to Colorado Rapids' 38 and sit with a +10 goal difference, built on an attack that found the net in 8 of their last 10 outings. The alarming number is defensive: just 2 clean sheets in that same 10 game run, including a 1-5 collapse at home to Minnesota United FC and a 2-4 defeat away to FC Cincinnati. Their most recent outing, a 3-1 home win over Portland Timbers, suggests the attacking end is functioning, and with 1.81 scored per game in the league against Colorado Rapids' 1.41, they look the sharper attacking unit even while still shipping goals at a similar rate.
The head to head reads 5 wins for Colorado Rapids, 4 for San Jose Earthquakes and a single draw from the 10 meetings covered, with 2.1 goals per meeting and both teams scoring in just 3 of those 10. The itemised meetings swing both ways, Colorado Rapids winning 2-0 in May 2026 and 3-0 in April 2024, San Jose Earthquakes winning 2-0 in May 2025 and 3-2 in May 2024, and a single draw sits among the uncounted totals. Given the defensive issues both sides have shown recently, 16 and 19 goals conceded across their last 10 matches respectively, and attacks that have found the net regularly, this has the look of an open match where both teams are likely to trouble the scoresheet, with San Jose Earthquakes' superior scoring record offering them the slight edge in an otherwise tight contest.
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