

The market rates Modena at 21%, so we are 7 points higher than the price implies.
Our own numbers, from the goal rates the model fits for each side.
Our score is the one that fits the goals we expect, so it is not always the biggest percentage above: the single likeliest score is usually a low scoring draw, and even that lands only about 12% of the time. This is the model's working, not a tip. The bets it leads to are below.
How this scoreline is calculated
Top Pick is the selection our model backs most strongly on this match, not the longest price. It is often a short one. Banker is the shortest priced call we rate highly, and Value the longest. Every one is published before kickoff and settled in public.
Where those opponents sat in the table: strong means they averaged roughly the top 40%, weak roughly the bottom 40%, mixed in between.
Opposition faced: Cremonese mixed, Modena weakThe form score weights every result and every goal by where the opponent sat in the table, so five wins over the bottom of the table score below five over the top.




Cremonese take a form score of 6.1 out of 10 into this Serie B fixture, against 5.2 for Modena. Cremonese have 1 win, 1 draw and 1 defeat in their last 3, while Modena have 1 win, 1 draw and 1 defeat in theirs. Across the season Cremonese average 1.5 goals scored and 0.8 conceded per game, Modena 1.3 and 0.9. Cremonese have kept a clean sheet in 63% of their matches this season, Modena in 38%. In their last 5 meetings Cremonese have won 3, drawn 2 and lost 0. Cremonese sit 18th on 0 points, Modena 4th on 3.
Form, head-to-head and season statistics are free to read. The model's predictions for this fixture are in the cards above.
Tomorrow's top pick, free, the moment it drops
Every pick is posted to the free Telegram channel before kickoff and the full record stays public, win or lose.
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