What we would back
Powered by Formatic AITop Pick is the card that stands out most against what its market usually offers, so it is rarely the shortest price here and not always the best rated. Banker is the shortest price under 1.25, and Value the longest over 1.60. Every one is published before kickoff and settled in public.
The market rates Crystal Palace at 34%, so we are 9 points higher than the price implies.
Our own numbers, from the goal rates the model fits for each side.
Our score is the one that fits the goals we expect, so it is not always the biggest percentage above: the single likeliest score is usually a low scoring draw, and even that lands only about 12% of the time. This is the model's working, not a tip. The bets it leads to are above.
How this scoreline is calculated
Crystal Palace
Form comparisonNottingham Forest
Where those opponents sat in the table: strong means they averaged roughly the top 40%, weak roughly the bottom 40%, mixed in between.
Opposition faced: Crystal Palace mixed, Nottingham Forest mixedThe form score weights every result and every goal by where the opponent sat in the table, so five wins over the bottom of the table score below five over the top.
- 01 Feb 2026Nottingham Forest1-1Crystal Palace
- 24 Aug 2025Crystal Palace1-1Nottingham Forest
- 05 May 2025Crystal Palace1-1Nottingham Forest
- 21 Oct 2024Nottingham Forest1-0Crystal Palace
- 30 Mar 2024Nottingham Forest1-1Crystal Palace
- 03 Oct 2026vsBristol City0-2L
- 20 Sept 2026vsLeeds0-0D
- 17 Sept 2026vsLech Poznan4-0W
- 12 Sept 2026vsIpswich2-3L
- 08 Sept 2026vsMiddlesbrough3-0W
- 19 Sept 2026vsCoventry0-1L
- 12 Sept 2026vsAston Villa1-2W
- 05 Sept 2026vsTottenham0-0D
- 29 Aug 2026vsLiverpool2-2D
- 25 Aug 2026vsLeeds0-2L
Crystal Palace vs Nottingham Forest: form and season numbers
Crystal Palace take a form score of 4.1 out of 10 into this Premier League fixture, against 4.3 for Nottingham Forest. Crystal Palace have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in their last 5, while Nottingham Forest have 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats in theirs. Across the season Crystal Palace average 1.5 goals scored and 1.7 conceded per game, Nottingham Forest 0.8 and 1.0. Crystal Palace have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their matches this season, Nottingham Forest in 20%. In their last 10 meetings Crystal Palace have won 0, drawn 8 and lost 2. Crystal Palace sit 15th on 4 points, Nottingham Forest 13th on 5.
Form, head-to-head and season statistics are free to read. The model's predictions for this fixture are in the cards above.
Crystal Palace vs Nottingham Forest prediction: draws keep finding this fixture
Two points separate these sides in the Premier League table, Nottingham Forest 13th with 5 from their opening 5, Crystal Palace 15th with 4, and neither has found any real rhythm to pull away from the other. Crystal Palace have won just once in 5 league games this season, drawing 1 and losing 3, with a goal difference of -5 built on 6 scored and 11 conceded. Nottingham Forest have also won only once, but their 2 draws from 5 and a far tighter -1 goal difference, 4 scored and 5 conceded, hint at a side leaking less even while struggling to score.
Crystal Palace's last 10 across all competitions make for uneasy reading: 5 losses, 17 conceded, and a 0-0 at Leeds in their most recent Premier League outing that follows a 2-3 home defeat to Ipswich and a 1-4 hammering by Manchester City. There are goals in this team, 15 scored in those 10 games and victories like the 3-2 away at Fulham, but a clean sheet in only 3 of 10 says the back line is the problem, not the forward line. A 0-2 home friendly defeat to Bristol City days before kickoff will not inspire much confidence either, even allowing for the lighter weight those matches carry.
Nottingham Forest's recent run is quieter but no sturdier. A 0-1 home defeat to Coventry in their last Premier League match came after a battling 2-1 win away at Aston Villa and a goalless draw at home to Tottenham, and across the full 10-game sample they have scored in just 4 and kept only 2 clean sheets. Failing to score in 60 percent of their recent matches, by their own season profile, lines up with a side that averages 14.3 shots a game but only 3.3 on target, chances created without being finished. Their 0.80 goals per game this league season is the lowest figure either side carries, and it points to a team that will need to make the most of whatever openings Crystal Palace's leaky defence offers.
History offers little encouragement for Crystal Palace specifically. Of the 5 itemised meetings, 4 were draws, including the two most recent, a 1-1 at Nottingham Forest in February 2026 and a 1-1 at Crystal Palace the August before, and the other was a 1-0 win for Nottingham Forest in October 2024. Crystal Palace have not won any of those 5. Across all 10 meetings, both sides have scored in 7 but only 1 produced more than 2.5 goals, at 1.8 goals per meeting on average, suggesting this fixture tends to settle into tight, low-scoring territory regardless of form elsewhere. With Formatic's form band giving Nottingham Forest only a slight edge over a Crystal Palace side that is patchy in its own right, and both sides more inclined to blunt each other than to open up, a tense, low-scoring draw fits the pattern this fixture keeps producing.
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