Our model scores this match once both teams have enough recent form to work from, predictions publish in the days before kickoff. Form, head-to-head and season stats are available in the tabs above now.
How this scoreline is calculated
DC United
Form comparisonNY Red Bulls
Where those opponents sat in the table: strong means they averaged roughly the top 40%, weak roughly the bottom 40%, mixed in between.
Opposition faced: DC United mixed, NY Red Bulls mixedThe form score weights every result and every goal by where the opponent sat in the table, so five wins over the bottom of the table score below five over the top.
- 22 Apr 2026New York Red Bulls4-4DC United
- 24 May 2025DC United0-2New York Red Bulls
- 19 Apr 2025New York Red Bulls1-2DC United
- 25 Jan 2025New York Red Bulls1-1DC United
- 29 Jun 2024New York Red Bulls2-2DC United
- 10 Oct 2026vsInter Miami4-0L
- 30 Sept 2026vsSC Paderborn 070-1L
- 27 Sept 2026vsVancouver Whitecaps3-3D
- 19 Sept 2026vsCharlotte1-2L
- 12 Sept 2026vsAtlanta United FC0-0D
- 10 Oct 2026vsSan Diego4-1W
- 30 Sept 2026vsSt. Louis City0-3L
- 18 Sept 2026vsNew York City FC0-1W
- 12 Sept 2026vsColumbus Crew0-1W
- 10 Sept 2026vsLos Angeles FC2-0L
DC United vs NY Red Bulls: form and season numbers
DC United take a form score of 3.0 out of 10 into this MLS fixture, against 3.8 for NY Red Bulls. DC United have 2 draws and 3 defeats in their last 5, while NY Red Bulls have 3 wins and 2 defeats in theirs. Across the season DC United average 0.8 goals scored and 1.8 conceded per game, NY Red Bulls 0.9 and 1.3. DC United have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their matches this season, NY Red Bulls in 30%. In their last 10 meetings DC United have won 1, drawn 4 and lost 5. DC United sit 12th on 30 points, NY Red Bulls 8th on 36.
Form, head-to-head and season statistics are free to read. The model's predictions for this fixture are in the cards above.
DC United vs NY Red Bulls prediction: shaky defences point to goals
DC United's home draw with Los Angeles FC and their blank against Atlanta United FC suggested a side capable of defensive discipline, but the last 10 matches tell a harsher story: 18 conceded, a clean sheet in just 2 of those games, and a 0-4 defeat away to Inter Miami as recently as 10 October. Sitting 12th on 30 points from 27 games, with 46 conceded and a goal difference of -12, DC United's poor current form fits a pattern of a team that has scored in only 5 of its last 10 outings and failed to score in half its matches this season on the broader season sample.
NY Red Bulls arrive in better shape, if only marginally. Their patchy form still produced a 4-1 win at home to San Diego on 10 October, built on 9 goals scored across the last 10 matches against 13 conceded, with clean sheets in 3 of those 10. At 8th on 36 points from 28 games, 6 points and 4 places above DC United, they carry a superior scoring and defensive record than their hosts, even if a 0-3 home defeat to St. Louis City and a 1-3 loss to Philadelphia Union show the same leakiness at the back, with 52 goals conceded this season against a goal difference of -14.
The head to head fits the profile of both attacks finding the net. Across the 5 itemised meetings, NY Red Bulls have won 2, DC United 1, with 2 draws, including a wild 4-4 at NY Red Bulls in April 2026 and a 2-2 at the same ground in June 2024. Across all 10 meetings, both teams have scored in 6, and the game has gone over 2.5 goals in 5 of those 10, averaging 3.4 goals per meeting. DC United's season numbers show plenty of shot volume, 15.8 shots and 5.1 corners per game, but only 4.6 shots on target and 37 percent possession, while NY Red Bulls control more of the ball at 47.2 percent and carry a higher expected goals figure of 1.7 against DC United's 1.47, despite generating fewer shots per game at 12.8.
Both sides' defensive totals, 46 conceded for DC United and 52 for NY Red Bulls this season, combined with recent scorelines like 0-4, 1-3 and 4-1, point toward an open game rather than a tight one. NY Red Bulls look the sounder side on current form and table position, but neither defence has shown control recently, and DC United's capacity to concede freely at home makes a repeat of the pattern from this fixture's head to head, goals at both ends, the most likely shape of the contest.
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