Both sides arrive at this Championship encounter searching for their first points of the campaign, locked level on 0 points with identical 1-2 opening defeats. Derby County sit 17th, three places above Stoke City in 20th, but the separation is entirely alphabetical at this stage. Each conceded twice in their league opener and the table offers no clarity beyond the fact that both need to respond.

Derby County's recent form scores 4.1 out of 10 across their last five outings, a patchy return built on just 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats. They have scored 6 and conceded 7 in that sequence, finding the net in 4 of the 5 but keeping no clean sheets. The most relevant result is the 1-2 reverse at Charlton, while a 1-2 home loss to Lincoln in the League Cup and a string of mixed friendlies complete the picture. Their season profile across 4 matches shows 12.8 shots per game and 4.2 on target, with 55.8 percent possession and 1.42 expected goals per outing. They have managed a clean sheet in just 10 percent of games and failed to score in 10 percent, suggesting a side that creates chances but lacks defensive solidity.

Stoke City's form rating of 3.6 out of 10 is marginally weaker, despite a deceptively balanced recent record of 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat across their last five. They have scored 6 and conceded 4 in that span, registering clean sheets in 2 of 5 and scoring in all 5. The competitive fixtures tell a more cautious story: a 1-2 home loss to Swansea in the league and a 2-0 League Cup win over Oldham. Friendlies against Valencia and Everton pad the totals but carry less weight. Over 6 matches this season, Stoke average 10.5 shots per game with only 2.3 on target, 7.8 corners and 49.5 percent possession. Their 0.9 expected goals per game is notably lower than Derby's 1.42, and they have failed to score in 30 percent of outings, the highest blank rate in this fixture.

The head to head record across the last 10 meetings favours Derby County with 5 wins to Stoke City's 3, plus 2 draws. The most recent clash in April 2026 ended 2-0 to Derby, while Stoke won 3-1 in August 2025. Of the 5 itemised meetings, 3 produced over 2.5 goals, though both teams scored in only 4 of the full 10. The average of 2.3 goals per meeting suggests a fixture that typically produces scoring chances, with 6 of 10 clearing 2.5 goals overall.

The form gap of 0.5 in Derby's favour is narrow but tangible, and their superior expected goals output and home advantage provide a measurable edge. Stoke's struggles to convert shots on target and their 30 percent failure rate in front of goal point to a side that may find it difficult to break down a Derby outfit averaging 4.2 shots on target per game. With both defences vulnerable and both attacks capable of scoring, the match could follow the head to head pattern of modest goal totals with Derby edging possession and shot volume. The numbers suggest Derby hold the platform to secure their first points, though the margin is unlikely to be comfortable given Stoke's ability to keep things tight when required.