Back to all matches
    Championship · kickoff 15:00
    FT 1-1
    Derby County
    Derby County
    22nd in the table
    LLLDD
    final
    1 - 1
    Wrexham AFC
    Wrexham AFC
    14th in the table
    DDLWD

    What we would back

    Powered by Formatic AI
    Match resultWin
    Derby County or Draw@ 1.54
    6/10
    Derby County winning or the draw covers two of the three results, 65% between them. Only Wrexham AFC winning beats it, at 35%.
    GoalsWin
    Under 3.5 Goals@ 1.30
    8/10
    We make the total 2.7 goals, so Under 3.5 Goals lands 73%. The line below, Under 2.5, is 51%.
    Both teams to scoreWin
    Yes@ 1.73
    4/10
    We give Derby County 74% to score and Wrexham AFC 72%, so both finding the net comes out at 54%.

    Top Pick is the card that stands out most against what its market usually offers, so it is rarely the shortest price here and not always the best rated. Banker is the shortest price under 1.25, and Value the longest over 1.60. Every one is published before kickoff and settled in public.

    how we see it finishing
    39%
    Derby County
    26%
    Draw
    35%
    Wrexham AFC

    The market rates Derby County at 32%, so we are 7 points higher than the price implies.

    Our own numbers, from the goal rates the model fits for each side.

    We expect around 2.7 goalsWe make it 2 - 1

    Our score is the one that fits the goals we expect, so it is not always the biggest percentage above: the single likeliest score is usually a low scoring draw, and even that lands only about 12% of the time. This is the model's working, not a tip. The bets it leads to are above.

    12.93
    X3.28
    22.38

    How this scoreline is calculated

    Derby County

    Form comparison

    Wrexham AFC

    2.5
    Form scoreout of 10, last 10 matches
    4.1
    Form score: Derby County 2.5, Wrexham AFC 4.1
    0.90
    Goals scoredper game, last 10
    1.00
    Goals scored: Derby County 0.90, Wrexham AFC 1.00
    1.70
    Goals concededper game, last 10, lower is better
    1.40
    Goals conceded: Derby County 1.70, Wrexham AFC 1.40
    mixed
    Opposition facedlast 10
    mixed

    Where those opponents sat in the table: strong means they averaged roughly the top 40%, weak roughly the bottom 40%, mixed in between.

    Opposition faced: Derby County mixed, Wrexham AFC mixed

    The form score weights every result and every goal by where the opponent sat in the table, so five wins over the bottom of the table score below five over the top.

    0/5Derby County
    Clean Sheetslast 5 games
    Wrexham AFC1/5
    2/5Derby County
    Failed to Scorelast 5 games
    Wrexham AFC2/5
    0.9Derby County
    Goals For per game
    Wrexham AFC1.0
    1.7Derby County
    Goals Against per game
    Wrexham AFC1.4
    1.8Derby County
    Yellow Cards per game
    Wrexham AFC1.4
    0Derby County
    Win Streakmatches
    Wrexham AFC0
    Season averages • Derby County: 10 matches • Wrexham AFC: 10 matches • Refreshed weekly
    Derby County
    Derby County
    Poor2.5/10
    Form score, last 10 matches
    LLLDD
    Over 2.5 goals
    2/5
    BTTS
    3/5
    Clean sheet
    0/5
    Scored in
    3/5
    Wrexham AFC
    Wrexham AFC
    Mixed4.1/10
    Form score, last 10 matches
    DDLWD
    Over 2.5 goals
    2/5
    BTTS
    3/5
    Clean sheet
    1/5
    Scored in
    3/5
    Last 5 meetings
    0W - 2D - 1L from Derby County's perspective
    • 10 Oct 2026Derby1-1Wrexham
    • 04 Jan 2026Derby1-2Wrexham
    • 27 Sept 2025Wrexham1-1Derby
    Derby County
    Derby County
    Last 5 matches
    • 10 Oct 2026vsWrexham1-1D
    • 19 Sept 2026vsBurnley1-1D
    • 12 Sept 2026vsBirmingham1-2L
    • 09 Sept 2026vsWest Brom0-1L
    • 05 Sept 2026vsWest Ham3-0L
    Wrexham AFC
    Wrexham AFC
    Last 5 matches
    • 10 Oct 2026vsDerby1-1D
    • 19 Sept 2026vsSouthampton2-1W
    • 11 Sept 2026vsWest Ham6-0L
    • 08 Sept 2026vsBurnley1-1D
    • 05 Sept 2026vsSwansea0-0D
    PosTeamPts
    12Lincoln City11
    13Southampton10
    14Wrexham AFC10
    15Bolton10
    16Blackburn Rovers9
    20Watford8
    21Cardiff City7
    22Derby County5
    23Preston North End4
    24Burnley4
    Updated daily

    Derby County vs Wrexham AFC: form and season numbers

    Derby County take a form score of 2.5 out of 10 into this Championship fixture, against 4.1 for Wrexham AFC. Derby County have 2 draws and 3 defeats in their last 5, while Wrexham AFC have 1 win, 3 draws and 1 defeat in theirs. Across the season Derby County average 0.9 goals scored and 1.7 conceded per game, Wrexham AFC 1.0 and 1.4. Derby County have kept a clean sheet in 10% of their matches this season, Wrexham AFC in 20%. In their last 3 meetings Derby County have won 0, drawn 2 and lost 1. Derby County sit 22nd on 5 points, Wrexham AFC 14th on 10.

    Form, head-to-head and season statistics are free to read. The model's predictions for this fixture are in the cards above.

    Tomorrow's top pick, free, the moment it drops

    Every pick is posted to the free Telegram channel before kickoff and the full record stays public, win or lose.

    Join the free Telegram