Dinamo Zagreb welcome Anderlecht to the Europa League on Thursday with both sides arriving in strong form but carrying contrasting recent momentum. The hosts score 7.8 out of 10 on Formatic's weighted form measure against Anderlecht's 7 out of 10, a gap of 0.8 that reflects Zagreb's ability to find the net consistently even when results have been mixed. Across their last 5 fixtures, Zagreb have scored 12 goals and found the net in all 5 outings, though they have conceded 8 and kept just 1 clean sheet. That attacking output includes a 4-0 home win over Rudes and a 3-1 victory against NK Varazdin, but also a 1-3 defeat away to Viking in the Champions League and consecutive 2-2 draws that underline their vulnerability at the back.

Anderlecht's recent record shows 3 wins and 2 defeats from their last 5, with 9 goals scored and 6 conceded. The visitors have been clinical in European competition, posting consecutive 3-0 wins over Kairat Almaty home and away, and a 3-2 home success against PAOK. However, domestic form has faltered badly, suffering a 0-3 reverse at Union St. Gilloise and a 0-1 loss to SK Beveren. They have scored in just 3 of their last 5 and failed to find the net in 20 percent of matches across their 8-game season sample, a concern against opponents who have blanked in 0 percent of games this term. Anderlecht's 2 clean sheets in 5 give them a marginally tighter defensive record than Zagreb's 1, but the broader season profile shows Zagreb averaging 2.69 expected goals per game from 24.1 shots and 6.6 on target, well ahead of Anderlecht's 20.2 shots and 5 on target.

The head to head record spanning 2 meetings offers Anderlecht little encouragement. Zagreb have 1 win and 1 draw from those encounters, both in 2018, with the visitors yet to register a victory. The fixtures have been miserly affairs, averaging just 1.0 goal per meeting with neither producing over 2.5 goals and both teams failing to score in either match. Anderlecht lost 0-2 away on 4 October 2018, then held Zagreb to 0-0 at home two months later. That defensive pattern sits oddly against the current season profiles, where Zagreb average 61.9 percent possession and 8.1 corners per game to Anderlecht's 58.3 percent and 7.3 corners, and both sides have shown a willingness to commit numbers forward.

Zagreb's perfect scoring record this season and their edge in expected goals and territorial dominance point toward a home side capable of controlling proceedings, but Anderlecht's recent European results demonstrate they can be ruthless when the domestic distractions fall away. The visitors' 40 percent clean sheet rate across 8 matches is superior to Zagreb's 33 percent, and their ability to shut out quality opposition twice in succession against Kairat suggests they can frustrate even the most persistent attacks. With both sides in strong form and Zagreb's home advantage offset by Anderlecht's European pedigree, the numbers suggest a contest tighter than the hosts' attacking statistics alone might imply, and the historical low-scoring trend between these two may prove harder to shake than either would prefer.