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    World Cup · kickoff 21:00
    FT 2-1
    Ecuador
    Ecuador
    3rd in the table
    WLDWL
    final
    2 - 1
    Germany
    Germany
    1st in the table
    WWWLD

    What we would back

    Powered by Formatic AI
    Match resultLoss
    Away Win@ 1.55
    Safer: Germany or draw at 1.16
    8/10
    Germany in peak form (10/10) averaging 3.4 GPG while Ecuador struggling at 4.67/10 form with just 1.1 GPG. Germany's World Cup pedigree and current dominance make them clear favourites.
    GoalsWin
    Over 2.5 Goals@ 1.61
    8/10
    Germany's 3.4 GPG away output virtually guarantees multiple goals. Even Ecuador's modest 1.1 GPG home suggests they can grab one in a tournament setting against an attacking Germany side.
    Both teams to scoreWin
    Yes@ 1.73
    7/10
    Ecuador typically find one goal at home (1.1 GPG) and Germany's attacking approach often leaves defensive gaps. Tournament atmosphere favors both teams pushing forward at the Estadio.

    Top Pick is the card that stands out most against what its market usually offers, so it is rarely the shortest price here and not always the best rated. Banker is the shortest price under 1.25, and Value the longest over 1.60. Every one is published before kickoff and settled in public.

    how the market sees it finishing
    19%
    Ecuador
    20%
    Draw
    61%
    Germany

    Win probability from the 1X2 prices we logged, bookmaker margin removed.

    We make it 1 - 2

    Our score is the one that fits the goals we expect, so it is not always the biggest percentage above: the single likeliest score is usually a low scoring draw, and even that lands only about 12% of the time. This is the model's working, not a tip. The bets it leads to are above.

    15.00
    X4.60
    21.55

    How this scoreline is calculated

    Ecuador

    Form comparison

    Germany

    4.0
    Form scoreout of 10
    5.1
    Form score: Ecuador 4.0, Germany 5.1
    1.10
    Goals scoredper game
    3.10
    Goals scored: Ecuador 1.10, Germany 3.10
    0.70
    Goals concededper game, lower is better
    1.00
    Goals conceded: Ecuador 0.70, Germany 1.00

    The form score weights every result and every goal by where the opponent sat in the table, so five wins over the bottom of the table score below five over the top.

    2/5Ecuador
    Clean Sheetslast 5 games
    Germany0/5
    3/5Ecuador
    Failed to Scorelast 5 games
    Germany0/5
    1.1Ecuador
    Goals For per game
    Germany3.1
    0.7Ecuador
    Goals Against per game
    Germany1.0
    0Ecuador
    Win Streakmatches
    Germany0
    Season averages • Ecuador: 10 matches • Germany: 10 matches • Refreshed weekly
    Ecuador
    Ecuador
    Mixed4.0/10
    Form score, last 10 matches
    WLDWL
    Over 2.5 goals
    2/5
    BTTS
    1/5
    Clean sheet
    2/5
    Scored in
    2/5
    Germany
    Germany
    Solid5.1/10
    Form score, last 10 matches
    WWWLD
    Over 2.5 goals
    4/5
    BTTS
    5/5
    Clean sheet
    0/5
    Scored in
    5/5
    Last 5 meetings
    1W - 0D - 0L from Ecuador's perspective
    • 25 Jun 2026Ecuador2-1Germany
    Ecuador
    Ecuador
    Last 5 matches
    • 01 Jul 2026vsMexico2-0L
    • 25 Jun 2026vsGermany2-1W
    • 21 Jun 2026vsCuraçao0-0D
    • 14 Jun 2026vsIvory Coast1-0L
    • 07 Jun 2026vsGuatemala3-0W
    Germany
    Germany
    Last 5 matches
    • 29 Jun 2026vsParaguay1-1D
    • 25 Jun 2026vsEcuador2-1L
    • 20 Jun 2026vsIvory Coast2-1W
    • 14 Jun 2026vsCuraçao7-1W
    • 06 Jun 2026vsUSA1-2W
    PosTeamPts
    1Germany6
    2Ivory Coast6
    3Ecuador4
    4Curaçao1
    Updated daily

    Ecuador vs Germany: form and season numbers

    Ecuador take a form score of 4.0 out of 10 into this World Cup fixture, against 5.1 for Germany. Ecuador have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in their last 5, while Germany have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in theirs. Across the season Ecuador average 1.1 goals scored and 0.7 conceded per game, Germany 3.1 and 1.0. Ecuador have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their matches this season, Germany in 30%. In their last 1 meeting Ecuador have won 1, drawn 0 and lost 0. Ecuador sit 3rd on 4 points, Germany 1st on 6.

    Form, head-to-head and season statistics are free to read. The model's predictions for this fixture are in the cards above.

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