The model's forecast cards
Powered by Formatic AITop Pick is the card the previous engine flagged on this match, under that engine's own rule, which has since been replaced. Every card is published before kickoff and settled in public.
Our score is the one that fits the goals we expect, so it is not always the biggest percentage above: the single likeliest score is usually a low scoring draw, and even that lands only about 12% of the time. This is the model's working, not a tip. The bets it leads to are above.
How this scoreline is calculated
England
Form comparisonCroatia
The form score weights every result and every goal by where the opponent sat in the table, so five wins over the bottom of the table score below five over the top.
- 17 Jun 2026England4-2Croatia
- 13 Jun 2021England1-0Croatia
- 18 Nov 2018England2-1Croatia
- 12 Oct 2018Croatia0-0England
- 11 Jul 2018Croatia2-1England
- 18 Jul 2026vsFrance4-6W
- 15 Jul 2026vsArgentina1-2L
- 11 Jul 2026vsNorway1-2W
- 06 Jul 2026vsMexico2-3W
- 01 Jul 2026vsCongo DR2-1W
- 02 Jul 2026vsPortugal2-1L
- 27 Jun 2026vsGhana2-1W
- 23 Jun 2026vsPanama0-1W
- 17 Jun 2026vsEngland4-2L
- 07 Jun 2026vsSlovenia2-1W
England vs Croatia: form and season numbers
England take a form score of 7.3 out of 10 into this World Cup fixture, against 5.3 for Croatia. England have 4 wins and 1 defeat in their last 5, while Croatia have 3 wins and 2 defeats in theirs. Across the season England average 2.4 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per game, Croatia 1.7 and 1.7. England have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their matches this season, Croatia in 10%. In their last 5 meetings England have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1. England sit 1st on 7 points, Croatia 2nd on 6.
Form, head-to-head and season statistics are free to read. The model's predictions for this fixture are in the cards above.
Tomorrow's top pick, free, the moment it drops
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