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    World Cup · kickoff 21:00
    FT 4-2
    England
    England
    1st in the table
    WWWLW
    final
    4 - 2
    Croatia
    Croatia
    2nd in the table
    WLWWL
    We make it 2 - 1

    Our score is the one that fits the goals we expect, so it is not always the biggest percentage above: the single likeliest score is usually a low scoring draw, and even that lands only about 12% of the time. This is the model's working, not a tip. The bets it leads to are below.

    What we would back

    Powered by Formatic AI
    Match resultWin
    Home Win@ 1.72
    7/10
    England strong tournament form (7.11/10) versus Croatia's moderate 5.33/10. Home advantage in major tournaments historically decisive, and the 1.89-point form gap suggests England control.
    GoalsWin
    Over 2.5 Goals@ 2.08
    6/10
    World Cup knockout intensity typically produces goals. England and Croatia H2H at major tournaments (2018 semifinal) delivered 3+ goals. Both sides attack-minded in tournament football.
    Both teams to scoreWin
    Yes@ 2.00
    7/10
    Croatia rarely shut out in major tournaments, scored in 14 of last 16 World Cup matches. England's 7.11 form suggests offensive threat, but Croatia's tournament pedigree (5.33 form still competitive) means they'll find chances.

    England

    Form comparison

    Croatia

    7.3
    Form scoreout of 10
    5.3
    Form score: England 7.3, Croatia 5.3
    2.40
    Goals scoredper game
    1.70
    Goals scored: England 2.40, Croatia 1.70
    1.20
    Goals concededper game, lower is better
    1.70
    Goals conceded: England 1.20, Croatia 1.70

    The form score weights every result and every goal by where the opponent sat in the table, so five wins over the bottom of the table score below five over the top.

    0/5England
    Clean Sheetslast 5 games
    Croatia1/5
    0/5England
    Failed to Scorelast 5 games
    Croatia0/5
    2.4England
    Goals For per game
    Croatia1.7
    1.2England
    Goals Against per game
    Croatia1.7
    1England
    Win Streakmatches
    Croatia0
    Season averages • England: 10 matches • Croatia: 10 matches • Refreshed weekly
    England
    England
    Solid7.3/10
    WWWLW
    Over 2.5 goals
    5/5
    BTTS
    5/5
    Clean sheet
    0/5
    Scored in
    5/5
    Croatia
    Croatia
    Solid5.3/10
    WLWWL
    Over 2.5 goals
    4/5
    BTTS
    4/5
    Clean sheet
    1/5
    Scored in
    5/5
    Last 5 meetings
    3W - 1D - 1L from England's perspective
    • 17 Jun 2026England4-2Croatia
    • 13 Jun 2021England1-0Croatia
    • 18 Nov 2018England2-1Croatia
    • 12 Oct 2018Croatia0-0England
    • 11 Jul 2018Croatia2-1England
    England
    England
    Last 5 matches
    • 18 Jul 2026vsFrance4-6W
    • 15 Jul 2026vsArgentina1-2L
    • 11 Jul 2026vsNorway1-2W
    • 06 Jul 2026vsMexico2-3W
    • 01 Jul 2026vsCongo DR2-1W
    Croatia
    Croatia
    Last 5 matches
    • 02 Jul 2026vsPortugal2-1L
    • 27 Jun 2026vsGhana2-1W
    • 23 Jun 2026vsPanama0-1W
    • 17 Jun 2026vsEngland4-2L
    • 07 Jun 2026vsSlovenia2-1W
    PosTeamPts
    1England7
    2Croatia6
    3Ghana4
    4Panama0
    Updated daily

    England vs Croatia: form and season numbers

    England take a form score of 7.3 out of 10 into this World Cup fixture, against 5.3 for Croatia. England have 4 wins and 1 defeat in their last 5, while Croatia have 3 wins and 2 defeats in theirs. Across the season England average 2.4 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per game, Croatia 1.7 and 1.7. England have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their matches this season, Croatia in 10%. In their last 5 meetings England have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1. England sit 1st on 7 points, Croatia 2nd on 6.

    Form, head-to-head and season statistics are free to read. The model's predictions for this fixture are in the cards above.

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