The model's forecast cards
Powered by Formatic AITop Pick is the model's top pick: the card that stands out most against what its market usually shows in the model's own numbers. It is not a judgement on the price. Every card is published before kickoff and settled in public.
The market rates FC Cincinnati at 44%, so we are 4 points lower than the price implies.
Our own numbers, from the goal rates the model fits for each side.
Our score is the one that fits the goals we expect, so it is not always the biggest percentage above: the single likeliest score is usually a low scoring draw, and even that lands only about 12% of the time. This is the model's working, not a tip. The bets it leads to are above.
How this scoreline is calculated
FC Cincinnati
Form comparisonColumbus Crew
Where those opponents sat in the table: strong means they averaged roughly the top 40%, weak roughly the bottom 40%, mixed in between.
Opposition faced: FC Cincinnati mixed, Columbus Crew mixedThe form score weights every result and every goal by where the opponent sat in the table, so five wins over the bottom of the table score below five over the top.
- 25 Jul 2026Columbus Crew2-1FC Cincinnati
- 08 Nov 2025FC Cincinnati2-1Columbus Crew
- 02 Nov 2025Columbus Crew4-0FC Cincinnati
- 27 Oct 2025FC Cincinnati1-0Columbus Crew
- 12 Jul 2025FC Cincinnati2-4Columbus Crew
- 14 Oct 2026vsNew England Revolution2-3L
- 10 Oct 2026vsAtlanta United FC1-3W
- 26 Sept 2026vsCF Montreal3-1L
- 20 Sept 2026vsHouston Dynamo2-2D
- 12 Sept 2026vsCharlotte3-3D
- 14 Oct 2026vsCharlotte3-1W
- 10 Oct 2026vsOrlando City SC3-2L
- 27 Sept 2026vsInter Miami2-1W
- 19 Sept 2026vsCF Montreal0-2W
- 16 Sept 2026vsOrlando City SC2-1W
FC Cincinnati vs Columbus Crew: form and season numbers
FC Cincinnati take a form score of 3.3 out of 10 into this MLS fixture, against 6.1 for Columbus Crew. FC Cincinnati have 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5, while Columbus Crew have 4 wins and 1 defeat in theirs. Across the season FC Cincinnati average 1.5 goals scored and 2.4 conceded per game, Columbus Crew 1.6 and 1.4. FC Cincinnati have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their matches this season, Columbus Crew in 20%. In their last 10 meetings FC Cincinnati have won 3, drawn 2 and lost 5. FC Cincinnati sit 9th on 36 points, Columbus Crew 13th on 32.
Form, head-to-head and season statistics are free to read. The model's predictions for this fixture are in the cards above.
FC Cincinnati vs Columbus Crew prediction: leaky defence meets steadier form
FC Cincinnati's last 10 league matches have conceded 24 goals, and the concession continued on 14 October with a 2-3 home defeat to New England Revolution. Sitting 9th on 36 points with a goal difference of -8, Cincinnati have scored enough to stay respectable, 60 in 28 games, but 68 conceded tells its own story, and Formatic's poor form band for the home side reflects a run of W2 D4 L4 that has produced zero clean sheets in those 10 matches.
Columbus Crew arrive in steadier shape, even if their own league placing, 13th on 32 points with a goal difference of -3, does not leap off the table. Their last 10 reads W5 D0 L5, 16 scored and 14 conceded, with clean sheets in 2 of those 10 and goals in 8 of 10. The pattern is streaky rather than smooth, a 3-1 win at home to Charlotte on 14 October followed a 2-3 loss away to Orlando City SC, and a 3-0 home win over Colorado Rapids sits alongside a 1-3 home defeat to New England Revolution. But the clear gap in form between the two sides, as Formatic's model measures it, favours Columbus Crew, and the counting stats back that up: Columbus Crew have conceded 47 in 29 games against Cincinnati's 68 in 28.
The head to head series leans the same way. Of the 5 itemised meetings, Columbus Crew have won 3, including a 4-0 rout on 2 November 2025 and a 2-4 away win on 12 July 2025, while Cincinnati's wins have been narrower, 2-1 and 1-0. Across the last 10 meetings in total Columbus Crew have won 5 to Cincinnati's 3 with 2 draws, both teams have scored in 6 of 10, and 7 of 10 have gone over 2.5 goals, with 3.0 goals per meeting on average. Given Cincinnati's defensive record this season and Columbus Crew's own struggles to keep opponents out, another game with goals at both ends looks the likeliest shape regardless of who takes the points.
The season profiles are close statistically, Columbus Crew edge the shot count 16.9 to 16.4 and shots on target 6.8 to 6, and both sides have failed to score in 20 percent of matches this sample, but Cincinnati's inability to keep a clean sheet all season, 0 percent, is the number that stands out. The market makes Columbus Crew the slight favourite, which fits a side in steadier form facing a Cincinnati team whose defence has been porous home and away. Expect goals from both sides, with Columbus Crew better placed to edge a game that may not be settled by much.
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