

Top Pick is the model's top pick: the card that stands out most against what its market usually shows in the model's own numbers. It is not a judgement on the price. Every card is published before kickoff and settled in public.
The market rates Ferencvarosi TC at 49%, so we are 7 points higher than the price implies.
Our own numbers, from the goal rates the model fits for each side.
Our score is the one that fits the goals we expect, so it is not always the biggest percentage above: the single likeliest score is usually a low scoring draw, and even that lands only about 12% of the time. This is the model's working, not a tip. The bets it leads to are above.
How this scoreline is calculated
The form score weights every result and every goal by where the opponent sat in the table, so five wins over the bottom of the table score below five over the top.




Ferencvarosi TC take a form score of 8.7 out of 10 into this Europa League fixture, against 5.4 for Plzen. Ferencvarosi TC have 2 wins and 3 draws in their last 5, while Plzen have 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats in theirs. Across the season Ferencvarosi TC average 2.5 goals scored and 0.6 conceded per game, Plzen 1.8 and 1.5. Ferencvarosi TC have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their matches this season, Plzen in 30%. In their last 5 meetings Ferencvarosi TC have won 1, drawn 2 and lost 2. Ferencvarosi TC sit 6th on 3 points, Plzen 34th on 0.
Form, head-to-head and season statistics are free to read. The model's predictions for this fixture are in the cards above.
Ferencvarosi TC arrive with an excellent form band and a run that reads W7 D3 L0 across their last 10 matches, scoring in every single one of those 10 games and keeping 5 clean sheets along the way. That included a 3-1 win away to Celtic in the Europa League on 17 September and a 4-0 home win over Trabzonspor on 27 August, bookended by a 1-0 win away to the same opponents a week earlier. Sitting 6th in a 36-team table with 3 points from W1 D0 L0, their goal difference of plus 2 only tells part of the story given 25 goals scored across that longer 10-match sample.
Plzen sit 34th with 0 points from their single league game, beaten 1-2 by Slavia Praha most recently relevant to their mixed run of W4 D2 L4 from the last 10, with 18 scored but 15 conceded. Their form band is described as steady rather than strong, and the clean sheet count of just 3 from 10 alongside scoring failures in 3 of those 10 points to a side capable of moments, such as the 3-0 home win over Mlada Boleslav on 10 October and the 5-1 demolition of FK Crvena Zvezda on 27 August, but also prone to collapses like the 0-3 home defeat to Union St. Gilloise on 17 September and the 0-3 away loss to the same Crvena Zvezda side a week before that win. Plzen's season profile shows 14.9 shots and 5.6 on target per game, respectable enough, but their defensive record undercuts it.
The head to head is where this gets interesting, because Plzen actually lead the recent series with 2 wins to Ferencvarosi TC's 1 from the last 5 meetings, including a 3-0 win in February 2025 and a 1-3 win in January 2024, with 2 draws also on the board. Both teams have scored in 2 of those 5 meetings and the goals per meeting sits at 2.0, a modest return that suggests tight, low scoring affairs rather than shootouts. That history cuts against the current form gap, which is described as wide in favour of Ferencvarosi TC, and it is a reminder that Plzen have shown they can trouble this opponent even from a position of weakness.
Ferencvarosi TC's attacking numbers, 15.9 shots and 6 on target per game with 52.4 percent possession, combined with a clean sheet in half their matches this season, make them the stronger side on paper and in current form. Plzen's record of failing to score in 3 of their last 10, plus conceding 15 in that same span, suggests they will need a performance well above their steady level to repeat their head to head success. Expect Ferencvarosi TC to dominate territory and shots, with Plzen's defensive fragility the deciding factor if the home side can convert their usual volume of attempts into goals early.
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