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    World Cup · kickoff 20:00
    FT 3-1
    France
    France
    1st in the table
    WWWLL
    final
    3 - 1
    Senegal
    Senegal
    3rd in the table
    DLLWL
    We make it 2 - 0

    Our score is the one that fits the goals we expect, so it is not always the biggest percentage above: the single likeliest score is usually a low scoring draw, and even that lands only about 12% of the time. This is the model's working, not a tip. The bets it leads to are below.

    What we would back

    Powered by Formatic AI
    Match resultWin
    Home Win@ 1.46
    Safer: France or draw at 1.14
    7/10
    France are heavy favourites with superior squad depth and home advantage. Senegal qualified strongly but lack key tournament experience at this level.
    GoalsWin
    Over 1.5 Goals@ 1.56
    7/10
    France's attacking depth (Mbappé, Thuram, Dembélé) should produce at least 2 goals against Senegal's weakened backline post-Koulibaly retirement. Over 1.5 aligns with 2-0 prediction.
    Both teams to scoreLoss
    No@ 1.60
    6/10
    Senegal struggled for goals in qualifying without prime Mané. France's defense (Saliba, Upamecano) should keep a clean sheet in a controlled home opener.

    France

    Form comparison

    Senegal

    4.0
    Form scoreout of 10
    2.9
    Form score: France 4.0, Senegal 2.9
    2.40
    Goals scoredper game
    1.80
    Goals scored: France 2.40, Senegal 1.80
    1.30
    Goals concededper game, lower is better
    1.60
    Goals conceded: France 1.30, Senegal 1.60

    The form score weights every result and every goal by where the opponent sat in the table, so five wins over the bottom of the table score below five over the top.

    3/5France
    Clean Sheetslast 5 games
    Senegal2/5
    1/5France
    Failed to Scorelast 5 games
    Senegal1/5
    2.4France
    Goals For per game
    Senegal1.8
    1.3France
    Goals Against per game
    Senegal1.6
    0France
    Win Streakmatches
    Senegal0
    Season averages • France: 10 matches • Senegal: 10 matches • Refreshed weekly
    France
    France
    Mixed4.0/10
    WWWLL
    Over 2.5 goals
    2/5
    BTTS
    1/5
    Clean sheet
    3/5
    Scored in
    4/5
    Senegal
    Senegal
    Poor2.9/10
    DLLWL
    Over 2.5 goals
    4/5
    BTTS
    3/5
    Clean sheet
    2/5
    Scored in
    4/5
    Last 5 meetings
    1W - 0D - 0L from France's perspective
    • 16 Jun 2026France3-1Senegal
    France
    France
    Last 5 matches
    • 18 Jul 2026vsEngland4-6L
    • 14 Jul 2026vsSpain0-2L
    • 09 Jul 2026vsMorocco2-0W
    • 04 Jul 2026vsParaguay0-1W
    • 30 Jun 2026vsSweden3-0W
    Senegal
    Senegal
    Last 5 matches
    • 01 Jul 2026vsBelgium3-2L
    • 26 Jun 2026vsIraq5-0W
    • 23 Jun 2026vsNorway3-2L
    • 16 Jun 2026vsFrance3-1L
    • 09 Jun 2026vsSaudi Arabia0-0D
    PosTeamPts
    1France9
    2Norway6
    3Senegal3
    4Iraq0
    Updated daily

    France vs Senegal: form and season numbers

    France take a form score of 4.0 out of 10 into this World Cup fixture, against 2.9 for Senegal. France have 3 wins and 2 defeats in their last 5, while Senegal have 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats in theirs. Across the season France average 2.4 goals scored and 1.3 conceded per game, Senegal 1.8 and 1.6. France have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their matches this season, Senegal in 40%. In their last 1 meeting France have won 1, drawn 0 and lost 0. France sit 1st on 9 points, Senegal 3rd on 3.

    Form, head-to-head and season statistics are free to read. The model's predictions for this fixture are in the cards above.

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