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    Segunda Division · kickoff 15:15
    FT 1-0
    Granada
    Granada
    7th in the table
    WWWWW
    final
    1 - 0
    Las Palmas
    Las Palmas
    11th in the table
    WWWWL

    The model's forecast cards

    Powered by Formatic AI
    Match resultWin
    Granada Win@ 2.00
    2/10
    Our three-way read is Granada 42%, the draw 27%, Las Palmas 31%, so Granada are the likeliest single outcome.
    GoalsWin
    Under 2.5 Goals@ 1.90
    5/10
    We make the total 2.4 goals, so Under 2.5 Goals lands 57%. The line below, Under 1.5, is 31%.
    Double chanceWin
    Granada or Draw@ 1.26

    Same side as the Granada win card. This one also wins if the match is drawn.

    7/10
    Granada winning or the draw covers two of the three results, 69% between them. Only Las Palmas winning beats it, at 31%.

    Top Pick is the model's top pick: the card that stands out most against what its market usually shows in the model's own numbers. It is not a judgement on the price. Every card is published before kickoff and settled in public.

    how we see it finishing
    42%
    Granada
    27%
    Draw
    31%
    Las Palmas

    The market rates Las Palmas at 25%, so we are 6 points higher than the price implies.

    Our own numbers, from the goal rates the model fits for each side.

    We expect around 2.4 goalsWe make it 2 - 0

    Our score is the one that fits the goals we expect, so it is not always the biggest percentage above: the single likeliest score is usually a low scoring draw, and even that lands only about 12% of the time. This is the model's working, not a tip. The bets it leads to are above.

    12.00
    X3.37
    23.70

    How this scoreline is calculated

    Granada

    Form comparison

    Las Palmas

    7.4
    Form scoreout of 10, last 10 competitive matches
    5.0
    Form score: Granada 7.4, Las Palmas 5.0
    1.90
    Goals scoredper game, last 10 competitive
    1.50
    Goals scored: Granada 1.90, Las Palmas 1.50
    1.00
    Goals concededper game, last 10 competitive, lower is better
    1.70
    Goals conceded: Granada 1.00, Las Palmas 1.70
    weak
    Opposition facedlast 10 competitive
    strong

    Where those opponents sat in the table: strong means they averaged roughly the top 40%, weak roughly the bottom 40%, mixed in between.

    Opposition faced: Granada weak, Las Palmas strong

    The form score weights every result and every goal by where the opponent sat in the table, so five wins over the bottom of the table score below five over the top.

    4/5Granada
    Clean Sheetslast 5 competitive
    Las Palmas2/5
    0/5Granada
    Failed to Scorelast 5 competitive
    Las Palmas1/5
    2.0Granada
    Goals For per game
    Las Palmas1.5
    1.0Granada
    Goals Against per game
    Las Palmas1.7
    1.9Granada
    Yellow Cards per game
    Las Palmas3.5
    0.0Granada
    Red Cards per game
    Las Palmas0.1
    7Granada
    Win Streakmatches
    Las Palmas0
    Season averages • Granada: 9 matches • Las Palmas: 10 matches • Refreshed weekly
    Granada
    Granada
    Solid7.4/10
    Form score, last 10 competitive matches
    WWWWW
    Over 2.5 goals
    2/5
    BTTS
    1/5
    Clean sheet
    4/5
    Scored in
    5/5
    Las Palmas
    Las Palmas
    Solid5.0/10
    Form score, last 10 competitive matches
    WWWWL
    Over 2.5 goals
    2/5
    BTTS
    2/5
    Clean sheet
    2/5
    Scored in
    4/5
    Last 10 meetings
    2W - 5D - 3L from Granada's perspective
    • 02 Apr 2026Las Palmas2-0Granada CF
    • 10 Oct 2025Granada CF0-0Las Palmas
    • 25 Jul 2024Las Palmas1-1Granada CF
    • 03 Feb 2024Granada CF1-1Las Palmas
    • 24 Sept 2023Las Palmas1-0Granada CF
    • 15 Apr 2023Granada CF2-1Las Palmas
    • 26 Sept 2022Las Palmas2-0Granada CF
    • 24 Mar 2019Granada CF1-1Las Palmas
    • 16 Nov 2018Las Palmas2-2Granada CF
    • 06 Feb 2017Granada CF1-0Las Palmas
    Granada
    Granada
    Last 5 competitive matches
    • 15 Nov 2026vsLas Palmas1-0W
    • 01 Nov 2026vsEldense0-2W
    • 29 Oct 2026vsCieza0-3W
    • 23 Oct 2026vsValladolid2-1W
    • 18 Oct 2026vsCadiz2-0W
    Las Palmas
    Las Palmas
    Last 5 competitive matches
    • 15 Nov 2026vsGranada CF1-0L
    • 09 Nov 2026vsEldense2-0W
    • 02 Nov 2026vsOviedo2-3W
    • 27 Oct 2026vsRSD Alcalá1-3W
    • 24 Oct 2026vsReal Sociedad II1-0W
    PosTeamPts
    ...
    5Mallorca23
    6Eibar23
    7Granada23
    8Sporting Gijón23
    9Oviedo21
    10Córdoba20
    11Las Palmas20
    12Valladolid18
    13Sabadell18

    The rows around these two clubs. Dots mark the clubs in between.

    Updated daily

    Granada vs Las Palmas: form and season numbers

    Granada take a form score of 7.4 out of 10 into this Segunda Division fixture, against 5.0 for Las Palmas. Granada have 5 wins in their last 5 competitive matches, while Las Palmas have 4 wins and 1 defeat in theirs. Across the season Granada average 2.0 goals scored and 1.0 conceded per game, Las Palmas 1.5 and 1.7. Granada have kept a clean sheet in 56% of their matches this season, Las Palmas in 20%. In their last 10 meetings Granada have won 2, drawn 5 and lost 3. Granada sit 7th on 23 points, Las Palmas 11th on 20.

    Form, head-to-head and season statistics are free to read. The model's predictions for this fixture are in the cards above.

    Preview

    Granada vs Las Palmas prediction: strong form meets leaky defence

    Granada arrive in fifth place on 23 points with a goal difference of plus 6, and the shape of their last 9 matches explains why Formatic's form band has them marked strong. Six wins and a draw from their last 7 fixtures, 18 scored and only 10 conceded across those 9 games, with a clean sheet in 4 of them, points to a side that has rediscovered both ends of the pitch after a rough patch in late September when Leganes and FC Andorra both beat them 3-2.

    Las Palmas sit 10th on 20 points, 3 points and 5 places behind their opponents, and their defensive figures tell the real story: 21 conceded in 13 league matches and 1.62 conceded per game, against 1.17 for Granada. Their last 10 shows the inconsistency that keeps them in the steady band rather than anything sharper, 5 wins and 4 losses, including a 0-3 home defeat to Castellón and a 1-3 loss away to Mallorca sandwiched either side of a 2-2 draw with Valladolid. Still, they scored in 9 of those 10 matches and go into this one off the back of back to back wins, 2-0 at home to Eldense and 3-2 away to Oviedo, so there is enough going forward to make this more than a formality for Granada.

    The head to head pattern cuts against any notion of an easy home occasion. Of the 5 itemised meetings, Las Palmas have won 2 and 3 have been drawn, with Granada yet to win any of them, including a goalless draw in October 2025 and a 2-0 defeat to Las Palmas as recently as April 2026. Across the last 10 meetings in total, goals have been scarce, 1.9 per game, with both teams scoring in only 5 of 10 and only 2 of 10 going over 2.5 goals, a pattern that sits oddly against Granada's current attacking output of 1.44 expected goals per game and a scoring streak in all 9 of their last matches.

    Put together, this looks like a contest between a Granada side playing with real control, clean sheets in 4 of their last 9 and 14.2 shots a game, against a Las Palmas team capable of scoring against anyone but prone to defensive collapses, having kept only 3 clean sheets in their last 10. Formatic's model treats Granada as the clear favourite on current form, but the head to head history of low scoring draws and Las Palmas's past success in this fixture suggest it will not be entirely one way traffic, and a narrow Granada win with goals at both ends looks the most likely route through this one.

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