Groningen enter the weekend second in the Eredivisie on 6 points from 2 matches, sitting 3 places and 2 points above Ajax in fifth. That early-season table gap, however, tells only part of the story. Formatic's weighted form score rates Ajax at 8.4 out of 10, excellent recent momentum built across competitive fixtures, while Groningen register 4.7 out of 10, a patchy start despite their position. The 3.7-point form gap in Ajax's favour is among the widest in this round and suggests the league standings may not survive contact with the visitors' current rhythm.

Groningen have won both league fixtures so far, beating Utrecht 2-1 at home before a 4-1 victory away to ADO Den Haag. Across their last 5 matches they have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat, scoring 7 and conceding 6, though two of those outings were pre-season friendlies including a 0-4 home loss to FC Volendam. Their competitive record is clean, but the underlying profile carries questions. They average 13.5 shots per match from a 4-match sample, 6.2 on target, and 47.2 percent possession. They have kept a clean sheet in 20 percent of games this season and failed to score in 30 percent, numbers that hint at inconsistency in both boxes.

Ajax have drawn their last two, 2-2 at home to Heerenveen in the league and 2-2 away to Shelbourne in the UEFA Europa Conference League, but both scorelines followed earlier wins and neither undermines a side that has scored in all 5 of their recent matches. They beat PEC Zwolle 2-0 away on 9 August and Shelbourne 3-1 at home three days earlier, compiling 12 goals and 6 conceded across the set. Their 6-match season sample shows 24.2 shots per game, 8.2 on target, and 67.2 percent possession, dominance metrics that dwarf Groningen's output. Ajax have yet to fail to score this season and average 10 corners per match, more than three times Groningen's 3. They concede 1 goal per game from 2 league fixtures, identical to Groningen, but the volume of chances created points to a side in control of most passages of play.

The head to head record across the last 10 meetings leans heavily toward Ajax, who have won 8 to Groningen's 1, with 1 draw. The 5 itemised fixtures include Ajax's 2-0 win in May 2026, a 2-0 victory in December 2025, and a 3-1 success in October 2024. Groningen's solitary win in that span came 7 March 2026, a 3-1 home result, while the sides drew 2-2 in May 2025. Both teams have scored in 7 of 10 meetings and 8 of 10 have gone over 2.5 goals, a pattern that aligns with Ajax's relentless scoring and Groningen's defensive vulnerabilities. The 3.9 goals per meeting average suggests another open contest, but Ajax's territorial dominance and Groningen's failure to score in nearly a third of matches this season tilt the probabilities.

Groningen's early table position offers a flattering view of a side whose patchy form and modest possession share leave them exposed to a visiting team averaging more than double their shot volume. Ajax have not lost in 5 and have scored in every match this season, combining European commitments with domestic consistency. The head to head pattern, the shot and possession differentials, and the 3.7-point form gap all point toward an Ajax side capable of dictating tempo and finding goals in a fixture that has historically delivered them. Groningen's home advantage and perfect league record provide resistance, but the numbers suggest Ajax's excellent form will prove the decisive factor on Sunday afternoon.