Excelsior travel to Heerenveen on Friday carrying an 8.2 out of 10 form rating against hosts rated at 6.6, a gap of 1.6 in the visitors' favour that frames this seventh against ninth Eredivisie encounter. The hosts sit 2 places and 1 point ahead after collecting 4 points from 2 matches, while Excelsior have taken 3 points from the same sample, but the underlying numbers tell a different story about momentum heading into this fixture.

Heerenveen have scored 3 goals and conceded 2 across their opening league fixtures, producing 1.50 goals per game at one end and shipping 1.00 at the other. Their recent sequence shows 10 scored and 8 conceded across 4 matches, though two of those were high-scoring pre-season friendlies against Volos NFC and OH Leuven that ended 3-2 and 4-4 respectively. In competitive action they have drawn 2-2 away to Ajax and beaten Twente 1-0 at home, recording 1 clean sheet from 4 outings and finding the net in all 4. Over a 5-match sample they average 12.6 shots per game with 5 on target, maintain 51.2 percent possession and generate 1.12 expected goals, though they have failed to score in 22 percent of fixtures and kept clean sheets at the same rate.

Excelsior arrive with 5 scored and 2 conceded from their 2 league games, translating to 2.50 goals per match at the attacking end. Across 5 fixtures they have won 4 and lost 1, scoring 18 and conceding 7, with three of those wins coming in pre-season friendlies at De Graafschap, Heracles and NAC Breda that finished 5-1, 5-3 and 3-1. Their competitive record comprises a 4-0 win away to Cambuur and a 1-2 home defeat to PSV Eindhoven. They have scored in all 5 matches and managed 1 clean sheet, averaging 13 shots per game with 5.2 on target, 50.6 percent possession and 1.48 expected goals. Notably, they have yet to draw a blank in any of their fixtures this season, failing to score in 0 percent of games.

The head to head ledger across the last 9 meetings tilts heavily toward Heerenveen with 6 wins against 2 for Excelsior and 1 draw, though the most recent encounters have split evenly. In March 2026 Excelsior lost 1-2 at home, and in October 2025 Heerenveen won 2-1 on home soil. Before that, Excelsior recorded back-to-back 3-0 wins in January and September 2023, either side of a 0-0 stalemate in May 2023. Across those 9 fixtures the average yield is 2.33 goals per meeting, with both teams scoring in 3 and over 2.5 goals landing in 6.

The form differential and attacking output favour the visitors despite their lower league position, while Heerenveen's home advantage and superior head to head record provide counterweight. Excelsior's 1.48 expected goals per game edges Heerenveen's 1.12, and their unbroken scoring run contrasts with the hosts' 22 percent blank rate. With 6 of the last 9 meetings clearing 2.5 goals and both sides conceding at 1.00 per league game, the goals market carries more conviction than the result on current evidence.