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    2. Bundesliga · kickoff 12:30
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    Hertha Berlin
    Hertha Berlin
    1st in the table
    WWWWD
    We make it
    2-1
    3.2 goals expected
    Greuther Furth
    Greuther Furth
    14th in the table
    WLDDL

    What we would back

    Powered by Formatic AI
    Match result
    Hertha Berlin Win@ 1.54
    Safer: Hertha Berlin or draw at 1.15
    4/10
    Our three-way read is Hertha Berlin 52%, the draw 22%, Greuther Furth 26%, so Hertha Berlin are the likeliest single outcome.
    GoalsValue
    Under 3.5 Goals@ 1.88
    6/10
    We make the total 3.2 goals, so Under 3.5 Goals lands 60%. The line below, Under 2.5, is 38%.
    Both teams to scoreTop Pick
    Yes@ 1.42
    6/10
    We give Hertha Berlin 85% to score and Greuther Furth 73%, so both finding the net comes out at 62%.

    Top Pick is the card that stands out most against what its market usually offers, so it is rarely the shortest price here and not always the best rated. Banker is the shortest price under 1.25, and Value the longest over 1.60. Every one is published before kickoff and settled in public.

    how we see it finishing
    52%
    Hertha Berlin
    22%
    Draw
    26%
    Greuther Furth

    The market rates Hertha Berlin at 61%, so we are 9 points lower than the price implies.

    Our own numbers, from the goal rates the model fits for each side.

    We expect around 3.2 goalsWe make it 2 - 1

    Our score is the one that fits the goals we expect, so it is not always the biggest percentage above: the single likeliest score is usually a low scoring draw, and even that lands only about 12% of the time. This is the model's working, not a tip. The bets it leads to are above.

    11.54
    X4.60
    25.00

    How this scoreline is calculated

    Hertha Berlin

    Form comparison

    Greuther Furth

    8.6
    Form scoreout of 10, last 10 matches
    4.1
    Form score: Hertha Berlin 8.6, Greuther Furth 4.1
    2.50
    Goals scoredper game, last 10
    1.60
    Goals scored: Hertha Berlin 2.50, Greuther Furth 1.60
    1.30
    Goals concededper game, last 10, lower is better
    2.10
    Goals conceded: Hertha Berlin 1.30, Greuther Furth 2.10
    mixed
    Opposition facedlast 10
    strong

    Where those opponents sat in the table: strong means they averaged roughly the top 40%, weak roughly the bottom 40%, mixed in between.

    Opposition faced: Hertha Berlin mixed, Greuther Furth strong

    The form score weights every result and every goal by where the opponent sat in the table, so five wins over the bottom of the table score below five over the top.

    0/5Hertha Berlin
    Clean Sheetslast 5 games
    Greuther Furth0/5
    0/5Hertha Berlin
    Failed to Scorelast 5 games
    Greuther Furth2/5
    2.5Hertha Berlin
    Goals For per game
    Greuther Furth1.6
    1.3Hertha Berlin
    Goals Against per game
    Greuther Furth2.1
    2.6Hertha Berlin
    Yellow Cards per game
    Greuther Furth1.3
    0.5Hertha Berlin
    Red Cards per game
    Greuther Furth0.0
    0Hertha Berlin
    Win Streakmatches
    Greuther Furth0
    Season averages • Hertha Berlin: 10 matches • Greuther Furth: 10 matches • Refreshed weekly
    Hertha Berlin
    Hertha Berlin
    Excellent8.6/10
    Form score, last 10 matches
    WWWWD
    Over 2.5 goals
    5/5
    BTTS
    5/5
    Clean sheet
    0/5
    Scored in
    5/5
    Greuther Furth
    Greuther Furth
    Mixed4.1/10
    Form score, last 10 matches
    WLDDL
    Over 2.5 goals
    2/5
    BTTS
    3/5
    Clean sheet
    0/5
    Scored in
    3/5
    Last 5 meetings
    5W - 1D - 2L from Hertha Berlin's perspective
    • 10 May 2026Hertha BSC2-1SpVgg Greuther Fürth
    • 12 Dec 2025SpVgg Greuther Fürth3-3Hertha BSC
    • 04 May 2025Hertha BSC1-0SpVgg Greuther Fürth
    • 07 Dec 2024SpVgg Greuther Fürth2-1Hertha BSC
    • 11 Feb 2024SpVgg Greuther Furth1-2Hertha Berlin
    Hertha Berlin
    Hertha Berlin
    Last 5 matches
    • 02 Oct 2026vsFC Augsburg2-2D
    • 29 Sept 2026vsHertha Zehlendorf1-3W
    • 19 Sept 2026vsDynamo Dresden1-2W
    • 13 Sept 2026vsVfL Osnabrück1-3W
    • 06 Sept 2026vs1. FC Magdeburg2-1W
    Greuther Furth
    Greuther Furth
    Last 5 matches
    • 01 Oct 2026vsVfB Stuttgart5-0L
    • 18 Sept 2026vs1. FC Magdeburg1-1D
    • 12 Sept 2026vsVfL Bochum1-1D
    • 06 Sept 2026vs1. FC Heidenheim0-1L
    • 29 Aug 2026vsEnergie Cottbus3-4W
    PosTeamPts
    1Hertha Berlin18
    2Nurnberg17
    3Heidenheim14
    12Hannover7
    13Darmstadt7
    14Greuther Furth6
    15Arminia Bielefeld5
    16Dynamo Dresden5
    Updated daily

    Hertha Berlin vs Greuther Furth: form and season numbers

    Hertha Berlin take a form score of 8.6 out of 10 into this 2. Bundesliga fixture, against 4.1 for Greuther Furth. Hertha Berlin have 4 wins and 1 draw in their last 5, while Greuther Furth have 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats in theirs. Across the season Hertha Berlin average 2.5 goals scored and 1.3 conceded per game, Greuther Furth 1.6 and 2.1. Hertha Berlin have kept a clean sheet in 10% of their matches this season, Greuther Furth in 0%. In their last 8 meetings Hertha Berlin have won 5, drawn 1 and lost 2. Hertha Berlin sit 1st on 18 points, Greuther Furth 14th on 6.

    Form, head-to-head and season statistics are free to read. The model's predictions for this fixture are in the cards above.

    Preview

    Hertha Berlin vs Greuther Furth prediction: unbeaten leaders face patchy visitors

    Six wins from six and a goal difference of plus 10 tell their own story at the top of 2. Bundesliga, and Hertha Berlin arrive in this one 11 places and 12 points clear of Greuther Furth before a ball is kicked. Formatic's form band has Hertha Berlin rated excellent against Greuther Furth's patchy tag, and the wider gap matches what the table already shows: 18 points next to 6, with Hertha Berlin scoring 2.83 and conceding just 1.17 per game compared to Greuther Furth's 1.50 scored and 1.83 conceded.

    Hertha Berlin's last 10 read W7 D3 L0 with 25 scored and 13 conceded, and they have found the net in all 10, including competitive wins of 3-1 at VfL Osnabrück, 2-1 at Dynamo Dresden and a thumping 5-3 away to Eintracht Braunschweig. Only once in that run did they keep a clean sheet, so the goals have mostly come alongside a few conceded at the other end, but the shot numbers back up the output: 21.1 shots and 6.7 on target per game in their 7-match season sample, with 50.7 percent possession and a 0 percent rate of failing to score. A 1-1 draw away to FC Saarbrücken in the DFB Pokal and a pair of pre-season friendly draws are the only blemishes, and neither dents a competitive record that stands at a perfect six from six in the league itself.

    Greuther Furth's numbers tell a rockier tale. Their last 10 show W3 D3 L4 with 16 scored and 21 conceded, and they have failed to keep a single clean sheet in that span while still finding the net in 8 of the 10. Competitive form has brought a 1-1 draw at home to 1. FC Magdeburg, a 1-1 draw away to VfL Bochum, and defeats including a 2-4 loss at home to 1. FC Nürnberg and a 0-1 reverse against 1. FC Heidenheim. Their season sample shows 15.1 shots and 5.6 on target per game, lower across the board than Hertha Berlin's figures, and they have failed to score in 20 percent of those matches. A 4-3 away win over Energie Cottbus shows they can still carry a goal threat, but conceding at the rate they have, with no shutout anywhere in their last 10, points to defensive problems that Hertha Berlin's attack is built to exploit.

    History leans the same way: Hertha Berlin have won 5 of the last 8 meetings against Greuther Furth's 2, with 1 draw, and the head to head has been short on caution, averaging 3.38 goals per meeting with over 2.5 goals in 7 of those 8 and both teams scoring in 6 of 8. The most recent meeting, a 2-1 Hertha Berlin win on 10 May 2026, fits that pattern, as does the 3-3 draw the sides played out in December 2025. With an unbeaten league leader carrying excellent form into a fixture against a side whose form is patchy and whose defence has leaked goals all season, this looks a clear favourite's match, and the head to head suggests goals at both ends rather than a backs-to-the-wall shutout from the home side.

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