Our model scores this match once both teams have enough recent form to work from, predictions publish in the days before kickoff. Form, head-to-head and season stats are available in the tabs above now.
How this scoreline is calculated
Inter Miami
Form comparisonNYCFC
Where those opponents sat in the table: strong means they averaged roughly the top 40%, weak roughly the bottom 40%, mixed in between.
Opposition faced: Inter Miami weak, NYCFC mixedThe form score weights every result and every goal by where the opponent sat in the table, so five wins over the bottom of the table score below five over the top.
- 22 Mar 2026New York City FC2-3Inter Miami
- 29 Nov 2025Inter Miami5-1New York City FC
- 24 Sept 2025New York City FC0-4Inter Miami
- 23 Feb 2025Inter Miami2-2New York City FC
- 21 Sept 2024New York City FC1-1Inter Miami
- 10 Oct 2026vsDC United4-0W
- 27 Sept 2026vsColumbus Crew2-1L
- 20 Sept 2026vsSan Diego2-2D
- 17 Sept 2026vsCruz Azul2-0W
- 12 Sept 2026vsNashville SC2-2D
- 10 Oct 2026vsChicago Fire2-1L
- 26 Sept 2026vsAtlanta United FC2-2D
- 18 Sept 2026vsNew York Red Bulls0-1L
- 13 Sept 2026vsReal Salt Lake0-2W
- 10 Sept 2026vsNew England Revolution1-2L
Inter Miami vs NYCFC: form and season numbers
Inter Miami take a form score of 5.8 out of 10 into this MLS fixture, against 3.5 for NYCFC. Inter Miami have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5, while NYCFC have 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats in theirs. Across the season Inter Miami average 2.4 goals scored and 1.4 conceded per game, NYCFC 1.1 and 1.4. Inter Miami have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their matches this season, NYCFC in 20%. In their last 10 meetings Inter Miami have won 3, drawn 4 and lost 3. Inter Miami sit 2nd on 49 points, NYCFC 10th on 33.
Form, head-to-head and season statistics are free to read. The model's predictions for this fixture are in the cards above.
Inter Miami vs NYCFC prediction: a 16-point gap meets a goal glut
Inter Miami arrive as the division's second-best side on 49 points from 28 games, and the scoreline from their last outing does the table justice: a 4-0 demolition of DC United at home on 10 October. That result capped a last-10 return of W3 D5 L2 with 24 scored and only 14 conceded, and they have found the net in all 10 of those matches. NYCFC, by contrast, sit 10th on 33 points, 8 places and 16 points below their visitors this week, and they travel off the back of a 1-2 defeat away to Chicago Fire on 10 October that fits a patchy run of W1 D4 L5 and just 11 goals scored in their own last 10.
What stands out about Inter Miami's form is not just the volume of goals but the inconsistency around it. Four of their last ten matches have finished level, including back-to-back 2-2 draws against Nashville SC and Atlanta United FC in September, and a 1-2 home defeat to Toronto FC shows they are not untouchable defensively, having shipped 50 goals in 28 league games this season at 1.79 per game. Still, the attacking numbers are hard to ignore: a 7-1 away romp over CF Montreal and a 2.43 goals scored per game in the league place them among the division's most potent sides, and Formatic's form band marks them as steady heading into this one.
NYCFC's numbers tell a tougher story. Their last 10 have brought just one win, a 2-0 success away to Real Salt Lake on 13 September, surrounded by defeats such as 2-3 at home to Philadelphia Union and 1-2 away to FC Cincinnati. They have failed to score in 2 of those 10 matches and conceded 14 in the same span, which lines up with a season average of 1.36 goals conceded per game and only 4 clean sheets worth of defensive stability all year, reflected in a +4 goal difference overall. Formatic's form score tags them as patchy, and a clear gap separates the two sides heading into Thursday's kick-off.
The head to head picture across the last 10 meetings is tightly split, 3 wins for Inter Miami, 3 for NYCFC and 4 draws, so history offers no obvious lean toward either side even as the current form gap says otherwise. Inter Miami's season expected goals mark of 2.09 per game and their record of scoring in every one of their last 10 matches suggest they should create enough to trouble a NYCFC side whose own expected goals figure sits lower at 1.61 and who have struggled for defensive solidity on the road this season. With Inter Miami's attack in rich scoring form and NYCFC's away form fragile, this looks set up as an even contest only on paper, with the shape of the match likely to be Inter Miami pressing from the front and NYCFC needing to hold firm defensively to keep it close rather than control it.
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