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    World Cup · kickoff 00:00
    FT 1-1
    Japan
    Japan
    2nd in the table
    WDWDL
    final
    1 - 1
    Sweden
    Sweden
    3rd in the table
    DWLDL

    What we would back

    Powered by Formatic AI
    Match resultLoss
    Home Win@ 1.91
    Safer: Japan or draw at 1.22
    8/10
    Japan in excellent form at 8.22/10 vs Sweden's poor 4/10. Home advantage in a must-win group stage match plus Japan averaging 1.9 GPG provides clear edge over a struggling Swedish side.
    GoalsLoss
    Over 2.5 Goals@ 1.80
    7/10
    Combined 3.6 GPG between both sides. World Cup group stage matches at this level typically open up, both teams need points and will attack.
    Both teams to scoreWin
    Yes@ 1.73
    7/10
    Sweden averaging 1.7 GPG despite poor form, they can score. Japan's attacking style (1.9 GPG) often leaves gaps at the back in World Cup knockout scenarios.

    Top Pick is the card that stands out most against what its market usually offers, so it is rarely the shortest price here and not always the best rated. Banker is the shortest price under 1.25, and Value the longest over 1.60. Every one is published before kickoff and settled in public.

    how the market sees it finishing
    49%
    Japan
    28%
    Draw
    23%
    Sweden

    Win probability from the 1X2 prices we logged, bookmaker margin removed.

    We make it 2 - 1

    Our score is the one that fits the goals we expect, so it is not always the biggest percentage above: the single likeliest score is usually a low scoring draw, and even that lands only about 12% of the time. This is the model's working, not a tip. The bets it leads to are above.

    11.91
    X3.40
    24.20

    How this scoreline is calculated

    Japan

    Form comparison

    Sweden

    4.0
    Form scoreout of 10
    2.4
    Form score: Japan 4.0, Sweden 2.4
    1.90
    Goals scoredper game
    1.80
    Goals scored: Japan 1.90, Sweden 1.80
    0.70
    Goals concededper game, lower is better
    2.30
    Goals conceded: Japan 0.70, Sweden 2.30

    The form score weights every result and every goal by where the opponent sat in the table, so five wins over the bottom of the table score below five over the top.

    2/5Japan
    Clean Sheetslast 5 games
    Sweden0/5
    0/5Japan
    Failed to Scorelast 5 games
    Sweden1/5
    1.9Japan
    Goals For per game
    Sweden1.8
    0.7Japan
    Goals Against per game
    Sweden2.3
    0Japan
    Win Streakmatches
    Sweden0
    Season averages • Japan: 10 matches • Sweden: 10 matches • Refreshed weekly
    Japan
    Japan
    Mixed4.0/10
    Form score, last 10 matches
    WDWDL
    Over 2.5 goals
    3/5
    BTTS
    3/5
    Clean sheet
    2/5
    Scored in
    5/5
    Sweden
    Sweden
    Poor2.4/10
    Form score, last 10 matches
    DWLDL
    Over 2.5 goals
    4/5
    BTTS
    4/5
    Clean sheet
    0/5
    Scored in
    4/5
    Last 5 meetings
    0W - 1D - 0L from Japan's perspective
    • 25 Jun 2026Japan1-1Sweden
    Japan
    Japan
    Last 5 matches
    • 29 Jun 2026vsBrazil2-1L
    • 25 Jun 2026vsSweden1-1D
    • 21 Jun 2026vsTunisia0-4W
    • 14 Jun 2026vsNetherlands2-2D
    • 31 May 2026vsIceland1-0W
    Sweden
    Sweden
    Last 5 matches
    • 30 Jun 2026vsFrance3-0L
    • 25 Jun 2026vsJapan1-1D
    • 20 Jun 2026vsNetherlands5-1L
    • 15 Jun 2026vsTunisia5-1W
    • 04 Jun 2026vsGreece2-2D
    PosTeamPts
    1Netherlands7
    2Japan5
    3Sweden4
    4Tunisia0
    Updated daily

    Japan vs Sweden: form and season numbers

    Japan take a form score of 4.0 out of 10 into this World Cup fixture, against 2.4 for Sweden. Japan have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5, while Sweden have 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats in theirs. Across the season Japan average 1.9 goals scored and 0.7 conceded per game, Sweden 1.8 and 2.3. Japan have kept a clean sheet in 60% of their matches this season, Sweden in 0%. In their last 1 meeting Japan have won 0, drawn 1 and lost 0. Japan sit 2nd on 5 points, Sweden 3rd on 4.

    Form, head-to-head and season statistics are free to read. The model's predictions for this fixture are in the cards above.

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