That 0-4 scoreline, away to Crystal Palace in the Europa League on 17 September, is the only competitive data point either side carries into this one from the competition itself, and it sits awkwardly alongside everything else Lech Poznan have produced domestically.

Because domestically, Lech Poznan have actually been in excellent touch. The derived totals from their last 10 show 6 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses, with 27 scored and 15 conceded, and they have found the net in 9 of those 10 matches. A 4-1 win away to Slask Wroclaw on 10 October and a 5-1 home win over Radomiak Radom on 20 September point to a side scoring freely in the Ekstraklasa, though the 0-4 defeat to Crystal Palace and a 1-2 loss away to Gornik Zabrze show the vulnerability that comes with a defence conceding 15 across those 10 games and keeping only 2 clean sheets. Their season profile of 18.5 shots and 6.2 on target per game, with 56 percent possession, suggests a team that creates plenty without necessarily shutting matches down.

Bayer Leverkusen arrive with the stronger form band of the two, rated excellent against Lech Poznan's strong, and the underlying numbers back that up. Their last 10 produced 7 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses, 25 scored against 12 conceded, and they scored in all 10 of those matches, with 4 clean sheets. A 4-3 win away to FSV Mainz 05 on 10 October and a 2-0 home win over RB Leipzig on 20 September show a side scoring consistently against Bundesliga opposition, and their 2-0 home win over Celje in the Europa League on 16 September is the most relevant form line for Thursday, a competitive continental win with a clean sheet attached. Their season profile of 20.5 shots and 6.7 on target per game, with 59 percent possession and a clean sheet rate of 40 percent, points to a side that controls games from the front while rarely failing to score, a record of 0 percent games without a goal in that sample.

The head to head picture for this specific fixture is limited to each side's own body of work rather than any shared history, and on the numbers available, the contrast is stark. Lech Poznan concede at a rate that has already produced a 4.00 per game average in the league table from their single match so far, while Bayer Leverkusen have not been breached at all, sitting on 0.00 conceded per game from their own league opener. Add in a slight form gap in Bayer Leverkusen's favour and a season profile edge in shots, shots on target, and clean sheet rate, and the market shapes up with Bayer Leverkusen as a clear favourite. Expect Lech Poznan's attacking instincts, visible in that 9-from-10 scoring run, to at least threaten, but the balance of defensive solidity and sharper continental form point toward a Bayer Leverkusen performance built on control and a likely clean sheet somewhere in the mix.