What we would back
Powered by Formatic AITop Pick is the card that stands out most against what its market usually offers, so it is rarely the shortest price here and not always the best rated. Banker is the shortest price under 1.25, and Value the longest over 1.60. Every one is published before kickoff and settled in public.
The market rates Liverpool at 32%, so we are 5 points higher than the price implies.
Our own numbers, from the goal rates the model fits for each side.
Our score is the one that fits the goals we expect, so it is not always the biggest percentage above: the single likeliest score is usually a low scoring draw, and even that lands only about 12% of the time. This is the model's working, not a tip. The bets it leads to are above.
How this scoreline is calculated
Liverpool
Form comparisonManchester City
Where those opponents sat in the table: strong means they averaged roughly the top 40%, weak roughly the bottom 40%, mixed in between.
Opposition faced: Liverpool weak, Manchester City weakThe form score weights every result and every goal by where the opponent sat in the table, so five wins over the bottom of the table score below five over the top.
- 04 Apr 2026Manchester City4-0Liverpool
- 08 Feb 2026Liverpool1-2Manchester City
- 09 Nov 2025Manchester City3-0Liverpool
- 23 Feb 2025Manchester City0-2Liverpool
- 01 Dec 2024Liverpool2-0Manchester City
- 11 Oct 2026vsManchester City0-0D
- 20 Sept 2026vsBournemouth0-1W
- 15 Sept 2026vsTottenham3-1W
- 12 Sept 2026vsFulham0-0D
- 09 Sept 2026vsAtletico Madrid2-1W
- 11 Oct 2026vsLiverpool0-0D
- 20 Sept 2026vsSunderland5-3W
- 17 Sept 2026vsNorwich5-0W
- 13 Sept 2026vsManchester United0-1W
- 08 Sept 2026vsFC Porto0-2W
Liverpool vs Manchester City: form and season numbers
Liverpool take a form score of 6.1 out of 10 into this Premier League fixture, against 7.7 for Manchester City. Liverpool have 3 wins and 2 draws in their last 5, while Manchester City have 4 wins and 1 draw in theirs. Across the season Liverpool average 1.4 goals scored and 0.9 conceded per game, Manchester City 2.3 and 0.9. Liverpool have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their matches this season, Manchester City in 50%. In their last 10 meetings Liverpool have won 3, drawn 2 and lost 5. Liverpool sit 7th on 9 points, Manchester City 1st on 15.
Form, head-to-head and season statistics are free to read. The model's predictions for this fixture are in the cards above.
Tomorrow's top pick, free, the moment it drops
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