Mallorca carry a substantial form advantage into Sunday's Segunda División encounter, their weighted score of 7 out of 10 sitting 1.9 points clear of Las Palmas's 5.1. That gap reflects a pre-season in which the hosts have found the net 14 times across five outings while conceding only 3, including a 3-0 victory over Oviedo in their final competitive outing of last term and friendly wins over Al-Fateh and Paris Saint Germain by the same scoreline. They have scored in all 5 of those matches and kept 3 clean sheets, establishing an attacking rhythm that has carried through the summer. Their season profile shows 11.8 shots per match and 4.5 on target from a 6-match sample, with 56 percent possession and 1.07 expected goals per fixture underscoring a controlled approach. A 40 percent clean sheet rate suggests defensive solidity, while they have failed to score in only 10 percent of games.

Las Palmas arrive with a more uneven recent record, posting 2 wins and 3 defeats across their last 5, all friendlies. They found the net 7 times but conceded the same number, never managing a clean sheet in that sequence. A 3-1 win at Cadiz offered encouragement, yet single-goal defeats to NEOM and Orlando Pirates bookended that period and a 1-2 home loss to Al-Ittihad underlined the defensive fragility. Their season profile of 11 shots and 3.6 on target per game from a 5-match sample trails Mallorca's output, and their 0 percent clean sheet rate across those fixtures flags vulnerability at the back. Having failed to score in 30 percent of their matches, they face a side averaging 53.6 percent possession and 4 corners per game but struggling to translate territory into shutouts.

The head-to-head record heavily favours the hosts, who have won 4 of the last 8 meetings to Las Palmas's solitary victory. The sides drew 1-1 in August 2023, then met three times across 2024 and early 2025 with Mallorca winning each, most recently 3-1 in February 2025 and 2-3 away in November 2024 before a 1-0 home success in May 2024. The 8-match series has produced 2.75 goals per meeting and both teams have scored in 6 of those encounters, while 4 of 8 have cleared 2.5 goals. That pattern of open exchanges and frequent scoring at both ends chimes with Las Palmas's inability to keep opponents out this summer, but Mallorca's 3 clean sheets from 5 suggest they may prove the exception.

Mallorca's 56 percent possession average and 4.2 corners per game point to territorial control, and their 1.07 expected goals per fixture aligns with the output they have delivered in pre-season. Las Palmas's 8.6 fouls and 0.8 yellow cards per match reflect a less aggressive defensive posture than Mallorca's 16.5 fouls and 2 bookings, which may prove significant if the hosts press high. The form gap of 1.9, the head-to-head dominance and the clean sheet disparity all point one way, with Mallorca's superior shot conversion and defensive organisation likely to decide a fixture in which the visitors have yet to demonstrate they can stop conceding.