Back to all matches
    Serie B · kickoff 18:00
    Upcoming
    Mantova
    Mantova
    3rd in the table
    WWLWW
    vs
    Empoli
    Empoli
    9th in the table
    DDDW
    how we see it finishing
    38%
    Mantova
    27%
    Draw
    35%
    Empoli

    The market rates Empoli at 27%, so we are 8 points higher than the price implies.

    Our own numbers, from the goal rates the model fits for each side.

    We expect around 2.5 goalsWe make it 2 - 1
    most likely scores1-113%1-010%0-110%2-18%ours0-08%

    Our score is the one that fits the goals we expect, so it is not always the biggest percentage above: the single likeliest score is usually a low scoring draw, and even that lands only about 12% of the time. This is the model's working, not a tip. The bets it leads to are below.

    12.06
    X3.35
    23.52

    How this scoreline is calculated

    What we would back

    Powered by Formatic AI
    Match resultTop Pick
    Mantova or Draw@ 1.27
    6/10
    Mantova winning or the draw covers two of the three results, 65% between them. Only Empoli winning beats it, at 35%.
    GoalsBanker
    Over 1.5 Goals@ 1.33
    8/10
    We make the total 2.5 goals, so Over 1.5 Goals lands 72%. The next line up, Over 2.5, is 47%.
    Both teams to score
    Yes@ 1.80
    4/10
    We give Mantova 73% to score and Empoli 71%, so both finding the net comes out at 52%.

    Top Pick is the selection our model backs most strongly on this match, not the longest price. It is often a short one. Banker is the shortest priced call we rate highly, and Value the longest. Every one is published before kickoff and settled in public.

    Mantova

    Form comparison

    Empoli

    7.8
    Form scoreout of 10
    5.1
    Form score: Mantova 7.8, Empoli 5.1
    2.60
    Goals scoredper game, form window
    1.00
    Goals scored: Mantova 2.60, Empoli 1.00
    1.40
    Goals concededper game, form window, lower is better
    0.89
    Goals conceded: Mantova 1.40, Empoli 0.89
    mixed
    Opposition facedform window
    weak

    Where those opponents sat in the table: strong means they averaged roughly the top 40%, weak roughly the bottom 40%, mixed in between.

    Opposition faced: Mantova mixed, Empoli weak

    The form score weights every result and every goal by where the opponent sat in the table, so five wins over the bottom of the table score below five over the top.

    1/5Mantova
    Clean Sheetslast 5 games
    Empoli1/5
    1/5Mantova
    Failed to Scorelast 5 games
    Empoli0/5
    2.6Mantova
    Goals For per game
    Empoli1.0
    1.4Mantova
    Goals Against per game
    Empoli0.9
    1.5Mantova
    Yellow Cards per game
    Empoli2.0
    2Mantova
    Win Streakmatches
    Empoli1
    Season averages • Mantova: 10 matches • Empoli: 9 matches • Refreshed weekly
    Mantova
    Mantova
    Solid7.8/10
    WWLWW
    Over 2.5 goals
    3/5
    BTTS
    3/5
    Clean sheet
    1/5
    Scored in
    4/5
    Empoli
    Empoli
    Solid5.1/10
    DDDW
    Over 2.5 goals
    0/4
    BTTS
    3/4
    Clean sheet
    1/4
    Scored in
    4/4
    Last 5 meetings
    0W - 1D - 1L from Mantova's perspective
    • 14 Mar 2026Empoli2-2Mantova
    • 21 Dec 2025Mantova0-1Empoli
    Mantova
    Mantova
    Last 5 matches
    • 22 Aug 2026vsCarrarese1-2W
    • 16 Aug 2026vsLazio0-2W
    • 09 Aug 2026vsAthletic Carpi0-1L
    • 06 Aug 2026vsLegnago Salus1-3W
    • 30 Jul 2026vsAlcione6-2W
    Empoli
    Empoli
    Last 5 matches
    • 22 Aug 2026vsCremonese1-0W
    • 17 Aug 2026vsPisa1-1D
    • 08 Aug 2026vsLivorno1-1D
    • 01 Aug 2026vsSpezia1-1D
    PosTeamPts
    1Vicenza Virtus3
    2Ascoli3
    3Mantova3
    4Modena3
    5Arezzo3
    7Sudtirol3
    8Palermo3
    9Empoli3
    10Cesena1
    11Sampdoria1
    Updated daily

    Mantova vs Empoli: form and season numbers

    Mantova take a form score of 7.8 out of 10 into this Serie B fixture, against 5.1 for Empoli. Mantova have 4 wins and 1 defeat in their last 5, while Empoli have 1 win and 3 draws in theirs. Across the season Mantova average 2.6 goals scored and 1.4 conceded per game, Empoli 1.0 and 0.9. Mantova have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their matches this season, Empoli in 33%. In their last 2 meetings Mantova have won 0, drawn 1 and lost 1. Mantova sit 3rd on 3 points, Empoli 9th on 3.

    Form, head-to-head and season statistics are free to read. The model's predictions for this fixture are in the cards above.

    Tomorrow's top pick, free, the moment it drops

    Every pick is posted to the free Telegram channel before kickoff and the full record stays public, win or lose.

    Join the free Telegram