The model's forecast cards
Powered by Formatic AITop Pick is the model's top pick: the card that stands out most against what its market usually shows in the model's own numbers. It is not a judgement on the price. Every card is published before kickoff and settled in public.
The market rates Marseille at 41%, so we are 12 points higher than the price implies.
Our own numbers, from the goal rates the model fits for each side.
Our score is the one that fits the goals we expect, so it is not always the biggest percentage above: the single likeliest score is usually a low scoring draw, and even that lands only about 12% of the time. This is the model's working, not a tip. The bets it leads to are above.
How this scoreline is calculated
Marseille
Form comparisonOlympiakos Piraeus
Where those opponents sat in the table: strong means they averaged roughly the top 40%, weak roughly the bottom 40%, mixed in between.
Opposition faced: Marseille strong, Olympiakos Piraeus weakThe form score weights every result and every goal by where the opponent sat in the table, so five wins over the bottom of the table score below five over the top.
- 01 Dec 2020Marseille2-1Olympiakos Piraeus
- 21 Oct 2020Olympiakos Piraeus1-0Marseille
- 23 Nov 2011Marseille0-1Olympiakos Piraeus
- 13 Sept 2011Olympiakos Piraeus0-1Marseille
- 11 Oct 2026vsEstac Troyes0-2W
- 20 Sept 2026vsParis Saint Germain1-2L
- 17 Sept 2026vsBeşiktaş4-1L
- 11 Sept 2026vsRennes1-0L
- 06 Sept 2026vsParis FC2-3L
- 11 Oct 2026vsPanathinaikos1-0W
- 20 Sept 2026vsLevadiakos0-1W
- 16 Sept 2026vsJagiellonia2-1W
- 12 Sept 2026vsOFI0-1L
- 08 Sept 2026vsVolos NFC3-2W
Marseille vs Olympiakos Piraeus: form and season numbers
Marseille take a form score of 4.5 out of 10 into this Europa League fixture, against 7.2 for Olympiakos Piraeus. Marseille have 1 win and 4 defeats in their last 5, while Olympiakos Piraeus have 4 wins and 1 defeat in theirs. Across the season Marseille average 1.6 goals scored and 1.6 conceded per game, Olympiakos Piraeus 1.5 and 0.7. Marseille have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their matches this season, Olympiakos Piraeus in 50%. In their last 4 meetings Marseille have won 2, drawn 0 and lost 2. Marseille sit 32nd on 0 points, Olympiakos Piraeus 13th on 3.
Form, head-to-head and season statistics are free to read. The model's predictions for this fixture are in the cards above.
Marseille vs Olympiakos Piraeus prediction: a wide form gap exposed
Marseille sit 32nd in the 36-team table after an opening 0-1 defeat, with 1 scored and 4 conceded putting them at a goal difference of -3. Olympiakos Piraeus, by contrast, sit 13th with 3 points from their W1 D0 L0 start, having scored 2 and conceded just 1.
Marseille's last 10 make grim reading regardless of competition. The derived totals show W3 D0 L7 with 14 scored but 19 conceded, a clean sheet in just 1 of those 10 matches. The competitive run is the real concern: a 1-2 home defeat to Paris Saint Germain on 20 September, a 1-4 loss away to Beşiktaş in the Europa League on 17 September, and further losses at Rennes (0-1) and at home to Paris FC (2-3) either side of a 0-2 away defeat to Monaco. The lone league win in that sample, 4-0 at home to Strasbourg, is now over two months old. Season numbers add to the picture: Marseille have kept a clean sheet in only 10 percent of games and failed to score in 30 percent, despite averaging 13.3 shots per game. Formatic's form band marks them as poor, and nothing in the results contradicts that.
Olympiakos Piraeus arrive in a different state entirely. Their derived totals read W6 D2 L2 with 14 scored and only 7 conceded, a clean sheet in exactly half of their last 10. The competitive form includes a 2-1 home win over Jagiellonia in the Europa League on 16 September and a 1-0 away win at Levadiakos on 20 September, either side of a surprise 0-1 home loss to OFI. Their only other defeat in the sample came away to NEC Nijmegen (1-2) in the Champions League, a tie they had drawn 0-0 at home a week earlier. Season figures back up the strong form tag: 17.9 shots and 8.5 corners per game, 59.2 percent possession, and a clean sheet in half their matches, with a failure to score in only 20 percent.
The head to head is tight on paper, 2 wins apiece from the last 4 meetings with no draws, and 1.5 goals per meeting across that set, with both teams scoring in just 1 of the 4 and only 1 going over 2.5 goals. But those meetings stretch back to 2020 and 2011 and say little about two sides in such contrasting current form. Marseille's defensive record of 19 goals conceded in 10 games and a single clean sheet sits awkwardly against an Olympiakos Piraeus side that has kept 5 clean sheets in the same window and averages nearly two more shots per game. The market reflects the imbalance, with Olympiakos Piraeus the clear favourite and Marseille cast as a side needing a marked improvement just to stay competitive. Given the shot and possession gap in the season profile, this looks set up for Olympiakos Piraeus to dominate territory and chances, with Marseille's hopes resting on stealing something from a game they are unlikely to control.
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