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    World Cup · kickoff 20:00
    FT 2-0
    Mexico
    Mexico
    1st in the table
    WWWWL
    final
    2 - 0
    South Africa
    South Africa
    2nd in the table
    DLDWL

    What we would back

    Powered by Formatic AI
    Match resultWin
    Home Win@ 1.40
    Safer: Mexico or draw at 1.07
    7/10
    Mexico as hosts with strong CONCACAF qualifying form face a South Africa side that scraped through CAF qualifying. Home advantage in opener plus quality gap favors Mexico comfortably.
    GoalsWin
    Under 2.5 Goals@ 1.69
    6/10
    MD1 historical prior (59% Under) applies here. Mexico capable of 2-0/2-1 but South Africa will defend compactly in opener. Tactical caution from both sides limits total.
    Both teams to scoreWin
    No@ 1.50
    6/10
    South Africa lack firepower and will prioritize shape in opener. Mexico solid defensively at home. Clean sheet for home side more likely than both scoring.

    Top Pick is the card that stands out most against what its market usually offers, so it is rarely the shortest price here and not always the best rated. Banker is the shortest price under 1.25, and Value the longest over 1.60. Every one is published before kickoff and settled in public.

    We make it 2 - 0

    Our score is the one that fits the goals we expect, so it is not always the biggest percentage above: the single likeliest score is usually a low scoring draw, and even that lands only about 12% of the time. This is the model's working, not a tip. The bets it leads to are above.

    How this scoreline is calculated

    Mexico

    Form comparison

    South Africa

    6.7
    Form scoreout of 10
    3.6
    Form score: Mexico 6.7, South Africa 3.6
    1.90
    Goals scoredper game
    0.90
    Goals scored: Mexico 1.90, South Africa 0.90
    0.50
    Goals concededper game, lower is better
    1.20
    Goals conceded: Mexico 0.50, South Africa 1.20

    The form score weights every result and every goal by where the opponent sat in the table, so five wins over the bottom of the table score below five over the top.

    4/5Mexico
    Clean Sheetslast 5 games
    South Africa1/5
    0/5Mexico
    Failed to Scorelast 5 games
    South Africa2/5
    1.9Mexico
    Goals For per game
    South Africa0.9
    0.5Mexico
    Goals Against per game
    South Africa1.2
    0Mexico
    Win Streakmatches
    South Africa0
    Season averages • Mexico: 10 matches • South Africa: 10 matches • Refreshed weekly
    Mexico
    Mexico
    Solid6.7/10
    Form score, last 10 matches
    WWWWL
    Over 2.5 goals
    2/5
    BTTS
    1/5
    Clean sheet
    4/5
    Scored in
    5/5
    South Africa
    South Africa
    Mixed3.6/10
    Form score, last 10 matches
    DLDWL
    Over 2.5 goals
    0/5
    BTTS
    2/5
    Clean sheet
    1/5
    Scored in
    3/5
    Last 5 meetings
    1W - 1D - 0L from Mexico's perspective
    • 11 Jun 2026Mexico2-0South Africa
    • 11 Jun 2010South Africa1-1Mexico
    Mexico
    Mexico
    Last 5 matches
    • 06 Jul 2026vsEngland2-3L
    • 01 Jul 2026vsEcuador2-0W
    • 25 Jun 2026vsCzechia0-3W
    • 19 Jun 2026vsSouth Korea1-0W
    • 11 Jun 2026vsSouth Africa2-0W
    South Africa
    South Africa
    Last 5 matches
    • 28 Jun 2026vsCanada0-1L
    • 25 Jun 2026vsSouth Korea1-0W
    • 18 Jun 2026vsCzechia1-1D
    • 11 Jun 2026vsMexico2-0L
    • 06 Jun 2026vsJamaica1-1D
    PosTeamPts
    1Mexico9
    2South Africa4
    3South Korea3
    4Czech Republic1
    Updated daily

    Mexico vs South Africa: form and season numbers

    Mexico take a form score of 6.7 out of 10 into this World Cup fixture, against 3.6 for South Africa. Mexico have 4 wins and 1 defeat in their last 5, while South Africa have 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats in theirs. Across the season Mexico average 1.9 goals scored and 0.5 conceded per game, South Africa 0.9 and 1.2. Mexico have kept a clean sheet in 70% of their matches this season, South Africa in 20%. In their last 2 meetings Mexico have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 0. Mexico sit 1st on 9 points, South Africa 2nd on 4.

    Form, head-to-head and season statistics are free to read. The model's predictions for this fixture are in the cards above.

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