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    Championship · kickoff 19:45
    Upcoming
    Millwall
    Millwall
    8th in the table
    LLDDW
    We make it
    1-1
    2.4 goals expected
    Swansea City
    Swansea City
    1st in the table
    DLWWW

    What we would back

    Powered by Formatic AI
    Match result
    Millwall or Draw@ 1.45
    7/10
    Millwall winning or the draw covers two of the three results, 68% between them. Only Swansea City winning beats it, at 32%.
    GoalsTop Pick
    Under 3.5 Goals@ 1.35
    9/10
    Under 3.5 Goals lands 78%. The line below, Under 2.5, is 57%.
    Second goals lineValue
    Under 2.5 Goals@ 1.92
    5/10
    We make the total 2.4 goals, so Under 2.5 Goals lands 57%. The line below, Under 1.5, is 31%.

    Top Pick is the card that stands out most against what its market usually offers, so it is rarely the shortest price here and not always the best rated. Banker is the shortest price under 1.25, and Value the longest over 1.60. Every one is published before kickoff and settled in public.

    how we see it finishing
    41%
    Millwall
    27%
    Draw
    32%
    Swansea City

    The market rates Millwall at 37%, so we are 4 points higher than the price implies.

    Our own numbers, from the goal rates the model fits for each side.

    We expect around 2.4 goalsWe make it 1 - 1

    Our score is the one that fits the goals we expect, so it is not always the biggest percentage above: the single likeliest score is usually a low scoring draw, and even that lands only about 12% of the time. This is the model's working, not a tip. The bets it leads to are above.

    12.52
    X3.44
    22.62

    How this scoreline is calculated

    Millwall

    Form comparison

    Swansea City

    4.9
    Form scoreout of 10, last 10 matches
    6.1
    Form score: Millwall 4.9, Swansea City 6.1
    1.50
    Goals scoredper game, last 10
    1.50
    Goals scored: Millwall 1.50, Swansea City 1.50
    1.60
    Goals concededper game, last 10, lower is better
    0.80
    Goals conceded: Millwall 1.60, Swansea City 0.80
    mixed
    Opposition facedlast 10
    weak

    Where those opponents sat in the table: strong means they averaged roughly the top 40%, weak roughly the bottom 40%, mixed in between.

    Opposition faced: Millwall mixed, Swansea City weak

    The form score weights every result and every goal by where the opponent sat in the table, so five wins over the bottom of the table score below five over the top.

    1/5Millwall
    Clean Sheetslast 5 games
    Swansea City1/5
    1/5Millwall
    Failed to Scorelast 5 games
    Swansea City1/5
    1.5Millwall
    Goals For per game
    Swansea City1.5
    1.6Millwall
    Goals Against per game
    Swansea City0.8
    1.2Millwall
    Yellow Cards per game
    Swansea City1.5
    0.1Millwall
    Red Cards per game
    Swansea City0.0
    1Millwall
    Win Streakmatches
    Swansea City3
    Season averages • Millwall: 10 matches • Swansea City: 10 matches • Refreshed weekly
    Millwall
    Millwall
    Mixed4.9/10
    Form score, last 10 matches
    LLDDW
    Over 2.5 goals
    3/5
    BTTS
    3/5
    Clean sheet
    1/5
    Scored in
    4/5
    Swansea City
    Swansea City
    Solid6.1/10
    Form score, last 10 matches
    DLWWW
    Over 2.5 goals
    4/5
    BTTS
    4/5
    Clean sheet
    1/5
    Scored in
    4/5
    Last 5 meetings
    5W - 3D - 2L from Millwall's perspective
    • 04 Jan 2026Millwall2-1Swansea
    • 27 Sept 2025Swansea1-1Millwall
    • 26 Apr 2025Millwall1-0Swansea
    • 26 Oct 2024Swansea0-1Millwall
    • 04 May 2024Swansea0-1Millwall
    Millwall
    Millwall
    Last 5 matches
    • 10 Oct 2026vsPreston0-1W
    • 19 Sept 2026vsWest Ham2-2D
    • 15 Sept 2026vsMiddlesbrough2-2D
    • 12 Sept 2026vsBlackburn3-1L
    • 08 Sept 2026vsNewcastle0-1L
    Swansea City
    Swansea City
    Last 5 matches
    • 10 Oct 2026vsNorwich2-1W
    • 19 Sept 2026vsLincoln1-2W
    • 12 Sept 2026vsBurnley3-1W
    • 08 Sept 2026vsSouthampton3-1L
    • 05 Sept 2026vsWrexham0-0D
    PosTeamPts
    1Swansea City20
    2Middlesbrough18
    3West Ham United16
    6Queens Park Rangers14
    7Birmingham City14
    8Millwall14
    9West Bromwich Albion14
    10Bristol City14
    Updated daily

    Millwall vs Swansea City: form and season numbers

    Millwall take a form score of 4.9 out of 10 into this Championship fixture, against 6.1 for Swansea City. Millwall have 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5, while Swansea City have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in theirs. Across the season Millwall average 1.5 goals scored and 1.6 conceded per game, Swansea City 1.5 and 0.8. Millwall have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their matches this season, Swansea City in 40%. In their last 10 meetings Millwall have won 5, drawn 3 and lost 2. Millwall sit 8th on 14 points, Swansea City 1st on 20.

    Form, head-to-head and season statistics are free to read. The model's predictions for this fixture are in the cards above.

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