A single place and zero points separate these sides after two rounds, yet the recent form picture could scarcely be more different. Excelsior carry an excellent weighted score of 8.3 out of 10 into this fixture, built on 4 wins from their last 5 across all competitions and 18 goals scored in that span. NEC sit on a patchy 4.3, their record over the same sample reading 2 wins and 3 defeats with 10 conceded. The 4-point form gap in Excelsior's favour is the widest observable contrast on a table that shows both sides level on 3 points, each with a win and a loss from their opening two league fixtures.

NEC's inconsistency is written into the results themselves. They beat Willem II 4-1 away and took a 2-1 home win over Olympiakos Piraeus in European qualifying, but sandwiched those performances with a 1-2 home loss to Telstar and a pair of heavy defeats to Bodo/Glimt, 1-3 at home and 0-3 away, in Champions League qualifiers. That European exit has left them without a clean sheet in 5 and conceding at 2.00 per game across the sample. Domestically they have scored 5 and conceded 3 in 2 matches, producing a goals profile of 2.50 at each end, and their season average of 5.5 shots on target per game from a 6-match sample suggests they create chances even when results turn. They have failed to score in 30 percent of fixtures this season and hold 54.8 percent possession on average, the higher of the two sides.

Excelsior's 5-match run includes three pre-season friendlies, which carry less weight, but the competitive results still stand out: a 4-0 win away to Cambuur and a narrow 1-2 home loss to PSV Eindhoven. Across all 5 they have scored in every outing, netting 18 times, and conceded 7, with 1 clean sheet. In league terms they mirror NEC's 2.50 goals scored per game but concede only 1.00, the tighter defensive record reflected in a goal difference of plus 3 against NEC's plus 2. Their expected goals figure of 1.48 per game and 5.2 shots on target suggest they convert efficiently, and they have yet to fail to score in a competitive fixture this season. Possession sits at 50.6 percent and they average 4.8 corners, identical to NEC, with a lower disciplinary profile of 0.7 yellow cards per game against 1.5.

The head to head across the last 9 meetings leans heavily toward NEC, who have won 5 to Excelsior's 3, with 1 draw. The most recent five itemised results include three shutout wins for NEC: 2-0 away in April 2026, 5-0 at home in August 2025, and 3-0 away in May 2024. Excelsior's last itemised win came 3-4 at NEC in August 2023, and they also lost 0-3 at home in February 2023. Across the full 9-match series, 3.67 goals per meeting is the average, both teams have scored in 5 of 9, and over 2.5 goals landed in 7 of 9, pointing to open exchanges historically even when one side dominates the scoreline.

The table positions offer no separation, but the form and defensive solidity give Excelsior the edge on paper going into this fixture. NEC's home advantage and head to head dominance counter that, particularly given four of their five itemised wins were by multiple goals. The goals data suggests both sides will threaten, and the historical pattern of high-scoring meetings aligns with current profiles that see each averaging 2.50 scored per league game. Whether NEC's recent European hangover persists or their home record against Excelsior reasserts itself will likely determine where the 3 points land in an 11th-versus-10th fixture that the numbers frame as tight and volatile.