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    Europa League · kickoff 20:00
    FT 1-1
    NEC
    NEC
    36th in the table
    DLLDD
    final
    1 - 1
    Levski Sofia
    Levski Sofia
    27th in the table
    WLDLW

    The model's forecast cards

    Powered by Formatic AI
    Match resultWin
    NEC or Draw@ 1.25
    7/10
    NEC winning or the draw covers two of the three results, 69% between them. Only Levski Sofia winning beats it, at 31%.
    GoalsWin
    Under 3.5 Goals@ 1.40
    9/10
    Under 3.5 Goals lands 78%. The line below, Under 2.5, is 58%.
    Second goals lineWin
    Under 2.5 Goals@ 2.03
    5/10
    We make the total 2.4 goals, so Under 2.5 Goals lands 58%. The line below, Under 1.5, is 31%.

    Top Pick is the model's top pick: the card that stands out most against what its market usually shows in the model's own numbers. It is not a judgement on the price. Every card is published before kickoff and settled in public.

    how we see it finishing
    41%
    NEC
    28%
    Draw
    31%
    Levski Sofia

    The market rates NEC at 50%, so we are 9 points lower than the price implies.

    Our own numbers, from the goal rates the model fits for each side.

    We expect around 2.4 goalsWe make it 1 - 1

    Our score is the one that fits the goals we expect, so it is not always the biggest percentage above: the single likeliest score is usually a low scoring draw, and even that lands only about 12% of the time. This is the model's working, not a tip. The bets it leads to are above.

    11.89
    X3.73
    23.95

    How this scoreline is calculated

    NEC

    Form comparison

    Levski Sofia

    3.0
    Form scoreout of 10, form window
    6.0
    Form score: NEC 3.0, Levski Sofia 6.0
    1.30
    Goals scoredper game, form window
    1.78
    Goals scored: NEC 1.30, Levski Sofia 1.78
    2.30
    Goals concededper game, form window, lower is better
    1.22
    Goals conceded: NEC 2.30, Levski Sofia 1.22

    The form score weights every result and every goal by where the opponent sat in the table, so five wins over the bottom of the table score below five over the top.

    0/5NEC
    Clean Sheetslast 5 games
    Levski Sofia3/5
    2/5NEC
    Failed to Scorelast 5 games
    Levski Sofia2/5
    1.3NEC
    Goals For per game
    Levski Sofia1.8
    2.3NEC
    Goals Against per game
    Levski Sofia1.2
    1.6NEC
    Yellow Cards per game
    Levski Sofia0.8
    0.1NEC
    Red Cards per game
    Levski Sofia0.0
    0NEC
    Win Streakmatches
    Levski Sofia1
    Season averages • NEC: 10 matches • Levski Sofia: 9 matches • Refreshed weekly
    NEC
    NEC
    Mixed3.0/10
    Form score, last 10 matches
    DLLDD
    Over 2.5 goals
    3/5
    BTTS
    3/5
    Clean sheet
    0/5
    Scored in
    3/5
    Levski Sofia
    Levski Sofia
    Solid6.0/10
    Form score, last 10 matches
    WLDLW
    Over 2.5 goals
    1/5
    BTTS
    1/5
    Clean sheet
    3/5
    Scored in
    3/5
    Last 5 meetings
    0W - 0D - 0L from NEC's perspective
    NEC
    NEC
    Last 5 matches
    • 10 Oct 2026vsAjax1-1D
    • 20 Sept 2026vsGO Ahead Eagles1-1D
    • 17 Sept 2026vsJuventus5-0L
    • 12 Sept 2026vsCambuur3-0L
    • 08 Sept 2026vsExcelsior2-2D
    Levski Sofia
    Levski Sofia
    Last 5 matches
    • 11 Oct 2026vsCherno More Varna0-2W
    • 17 Sept 2026vsRed Bull Salzburg0-1L
    • 13 Sept 2026vsBotev Vratsa0-0D
    • 09 Sept 2026vsCSKA Sofia2-4L
    • 05 Sept 2026vsCSKA 19481-0W
    PosTeamPts
    25Celta Vigo0
    26AZ Alkmaar0
    27Levski Sofia0
    28Celtic0
    29Hoffenheim0
    34Plzen0
    35Lech Poznan0
    36NEC0
    Updated daily

    NEC vs Levski Sofia: form and season numbers

    NEC take a form score of 3.0 out of 10 into this Europa League fixture, against 6.0 for Levski Sofia. NEC have 3 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5, while Levski Sofia have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in theirs. Across the season NEC average 1.3 goals scored and 2.3 conceded per game, Levski Sofia 1.8 and 1.2. NEC have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their matches this season, Levski Sofia in 44%. NEC sit 36th on 0 points, Levski Sofia 27th on 0.

    Form, head-to-head and season statistics are free to read. The model's predictions for this fixture are in the cards above.

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