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    World Cup · kickoff 21:00
    FT 2-2
    Netherlands
    Netherlands
    1st in the table
    WDWWD
    final
    2 - 2
    Japan
    Japan
    2nd in the table
    WDWDL

    What we would back

    Powered by Formatic AI
    Match resultLoss
    Home Win@ 2.01
    6/10
    Netherlands have stronger squad depth and home continent advantage. Japan are dangerous but historically struggle in opening matches against European opposition at World Cups.
    GoalsWin
    Over 1.5 Goals@ 1.28
    8/10
    Both teams scored in 80%+ of qualifiers. Netherlands averaged 2.3 goals/game, Japan 1.8. Even with MD1 caution, quality suggests multiple goals.
    Both teams to scoreWin
    Yes@ 1.75
    6/10
    Japan scored in 7/10 qualifiers including vs strong opponents. Netherlands conceded in 6/10. Both have quality to breach but MD1 nerves add risk.

    Top Pick is the card that stands out most against what its market usually offers, so it is rarely the shortest price here and not always the best rated. Banker is the shortest price under 1.25, and Value the longest over 1.60. Every one is published before kickoff and settled in public.

    We make it 2 - 1

    Our score is the one that fits the goals we expect, so it is not always the biggest percentage above: the single likeliest score is usually a low scoring draw, and even that lands only about 12% of the time. This is the model's working, not a tip. The bets it leads to are above.

    How this scoreline is calculated

    Netherlands

    Form comparison

    Japan

    6.9
    Form scoreout of 10
    4.0
    Form score: Netherlands 6.9, Japan 4.0
    2.10
    Goals scoredper game
    1.90
    Goals scored: Netherlands 2.10, Japan 1.90
    1.00
    Goals concededper game, lower is better
    0.70
    Goals conceded: Netherlands 1.00, Japan 0.70

    The form score weights every result and every goal by where the opponent sat in the table, so five wins over the bottom of the table score below five over the top.

    0/5Netherlands
    Clean Sheetslast 5 games
    Japan2/5
    0/5Netherlands
    Failed to Scorelast 5 games
    Japan0/5
    2.1Netherlands
    Goals For per game
    Japan1.9
    1.0Netherlands
    Goals Against per game
    Japan0.7
    0Netherlands
    Win Streakmatches
    Japan0
    Season averages • Netherlands: 10 matches • Japan: 10 matches • Refreshed weekly
    Netherlands
    Netherlands
    Solid6.9/10
    Form score, last 10 matches
    WDWWD
    Over 2.5 goals
    4/5
    BTTS
    5/5
    Clean sheet
    0/5
    Scored in
    5/5
    Japan
    Japan
    Mixed4.0/10
    Form score, last 10 matches
    WDWDL
    Over 2.5 goals
    3/5
    BTTS
    3/5
    Clean sheet
    2/5
    Scored in
    5/5
    Last 5 meetings
    1W - 1D - 0L from Netherlands's perspective
    • 14 Jun 2026Netherlands2-2Japan
    • 19 Jun 2010Netherlands1-0Japan
    Netherlands
    Netherlands
    Last 5 matches
    • 30 Jun 2026vsMorocco1-1D
    • 25 Jun 2026vsTunisia1-3W
    • 20 Jun 2026vsSweden5-1W
    • 14 Jun 2026vsJapan2-2D
    • 08 Jun 2026vsUzbekistan2-1W
    Japan
    Japan
    Last 5 matches
    • 29 Jun 2026vsBrazil2-1L
    • 25 Jun 2026vsSweden1-1D
    • 21 Jun 2026vsTunisia0-4W
    • 14 Jun 2026vsNetherlands2-2D
    • 31 May 2026vsIceland1-0W
    PosTeamPts
    1Netherlands7
    2Japan5
    3Sweden4
    4Tunisia0
    Updated daily

    Netherlands vs Japan: form and season numbers

    Netherlands take a form score of 6.9 out of 10 into this World Cup fixture, against 4.0 for Japan. Netherlands have 3 wins and 2 draws in their last 5, while Japan have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat in theirs. Across the season Netherlands average 2.1 goals scored and 1.0 conceded per game, Japan 1.9 and 0.7. Netherlands have kept a clean sheet in 10% of their matches this season, Japan in 60%. In their last 2 meetings Netherlands have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 0. Netherlands sit 1st on 7 points, Japan 2nd on 5.

    Form, head-to-head and season statistics are free to read. The model's predictions for this fixture are in the cards above.

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