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    World Cup · kickoff 18:00
    FT 5-1
    Netherlands
    Netherlands
    1st in the table
    WDWWD
    final
    5 - 1
    Sweden
    Sweden
    3rd in the table
    DWLDL

    What we would back

    Powered by Formatic AI
    Match resultWin
    DC Netherlands/Draw@ 1.28
    6/10
    Netherlands underperforming at 4.89/10 form vs Sweden's stronger 6.22/10 form. World Cup opener intensity typically favors cautious play. Home advantage at 1.7 odds suggests modest favoritism, but Sweden's form edge warrants draw coverage.
    GoalsLoss
    Under 2.5 Goals@ 1.91
    7/10
    World Cup group stage openers historically tight and tactical. Both sides likely to prioritize avoiding defeat over attacking risk. Tournament knockout format incentivizes conservative approach early.
    Both teams to scoreWin
    Yes@ 1.83
    6/10
    Despite predicted low-scoring affair, both nations possess quality attacking personnel. World Cup stage typically sees even underdogs find breakthrough moments. Sweden's superior form (6.22/10) suggests they'll threaten.

    Top Pick is the card that stands out most against what its market usually offers, so it is rarely the shortest price here and not always the best rated. Banker is the shortest price under 1.25, and Value the longest over 1.60. Every one is published before kickoff and settled in public.

    We make it 1 - 1

    Our score is the one that fits the goals we expect, so it is not always the biggest percentage above: the single likeliest score is usually a low scoring draw, and even that lands only about 12% of the time. This is the model's working, not a tip. The bets it leads to are above.

    How this scoreline is calculated

    Netherlands

    Form comparison

    Sweden

    6.9
    Form scoreout of 10
    2.4
    Form score: Netherlands 6.9, Sweden 2.4
    2.10
    Goals scoredper game
    1.80
    Goals scored: Netherlands 2.10, Sweden 1.80
    1.00
    Goals concededper game, lower is better
    2.30
    Goals conceded: Netherlands 1.00, Sweden 2.30

    The form score weights every result and every goal by where the opponent sat in the table, so five wins over the bottom of the table score below five over the top.

    0/5Netherlands
    Clean Sheetslast 5 games
    Sweden0/5
    0/5Netherlands
    Failed to Scorelast 5 games
    Sweden1/5
    2.1Netherlands
    Goals For per game
    Sweden1.8
    1.0Netherlands
    Goals Against per game
    Sweden2.3
    0Netherlands
    Win Streakmatches
    Sweden0
    Season averages • Netherlands: 10 matches • Sweden: 10 matches • Refreshed weekly
    Netherlands
    Netherlands
    Solid6.9/10
    Form score, last 10 matches
    WDWWD
    Over 2.5 goals
    4/5
    BTTS
    5/5
    Clean sheet
    0/5
    Scored in
    5/5
    Sweden
    Sweden
    Poor2.4/10
    Form score, last 10 matches
    DWLDL
    Over 2.5 goals
    4/5
    BTTS
    4/5
    Clean sheet
    0/5
    Scored in
    4/5
    Last 5 meetings
    2W - 1D - 0L from Netherlands's perspective
    • 20 Jun 2026Netherlands5-1Sweden
    • 10 Oct 2017Netherlands2-0Sweden
    • 06 Sept 2016Sweden1-1Netherlands
    Netherlands
    Netherlands
    Last 5 matches
    • 30 Jun 2026vsMorocco1-1D
    • 25 Jun 2026vsTunisia1-3W
    • 20 Jun 2026vsSweden5-1W
    • 14 Jun 2026vsJapan2-2D
    • 08 Jun 2026vsUzbekistan2-1W
    Sweden
    Sweden
    Last 5 matches
    • 30 Jun 2026vsFrance3-0L
    • 25 Jun 2026vsJapan1-1D
    • 20 Jun 2026vsNetherlands5-1L
    • 15 Jun 2026vsTunisia5-1W
    • 04 Jun 2026vsGreece2-2D
    PosTeamPts
    1Netherlands7
    2Japan5
    3Sweden4
    4Tunisia0
    Updated daily

    Netherlands vs Sweden: form and season numbers

    Netherlands take a form score of 6.9 out of 10 into this World Cup fixture, against 2.4 for Sweden. Netherlands have 3 wins and 2 draws in their last 5, while Sweden have 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats in theirs. Across the season Netherlands average 2.1 goals scored and 1.0 conceded per game, Sweden 1.8 and 2.3. Netherlands have kept a clean sheet in 10% of their matches this season, Sweden in 0%. In their last 3 meetings Netherlands have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 0. Netherlands sit 1st on 7 points, Sweden 3rd on 4.

    Form, head-to-head and season statistics are free to read. The model's predictions for this fixture are in the cards above.

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