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    World Cup · kickoff 04:00
    FT 1-5
    New Zealand
    New Zealand
    4th in the table
    LLDLL
    final
    1 - 5
    Belgium
    Belgium
    1st in the table
    DWWWL

    What we would back

    Powered by Formatic AI
    Match resultWin
    Away Win@ 1.17
    Safer: Belgium or draw at 1.01
    9/10
    Belgium massively superior in every metric, 5.56/10 form vs NZ's 1.56/10, 2.6 GPG vs 0.9, and the 1.2 odds imply 83% probability. New Zealand's form is basement-level heading into a World Cup knockout stage.
    GoalsWin
    Over 2.5 Goals@ 1.40
    7/10
    Belgium averaging 2.6 GPG will dominate possession and create chances. New Zealand conceding heavily in qualifiers (1.56 form suggests defensive frailty). Expect Belgium to score 3+.
    Both teams to scoreLoss
    No@ 1.74
    8/10
    New Zealand's 0.9 GPG and 1.56/10 form indicate severe attacking limitations against elite opposition. Belgium's defensive discipline (5.56 form) should keep a clean sheet in a World Cup stage match.

    Top Pick is the card that stands out most against what its market usually offers, so it is rarely the shortest price here and not always the best rated. Banker is the shortest price under 1.25, and Value the longest over 1.60. Every one is published before kickoff and settled in public.

    how the market sees it finishing
    6%
    New Zealand
    13%
    Draw
    81%
    Belgium

    Win probability from the 1X2 prices we logged, bookmaker margin removed.

    We make it 3 - 0

    Our score is the one that fits the goals we expect, so it is not always the biggest percentage above: the single likeliest score is usually a low scoring draw, and even that lands only about 12% of the time. This is the model's working, not a tip. The bets it leads to are above.

    115.50
    X7.50
    21.17

    How this scoreline is calculated

    New Zealand

    Form comparison

    Belgium

    0.7
    Form scoreout of 10
    6.2
    Form score: New Zealand 0.7, Belgium 6.2
    1.00
    Goals scoredper game
    2.70
    Goals scored: New Zealand 1.00, Belgium 2.70
    2.30
    Goals concededper game, lower is better
    1.00
    Goals conceded: New Zealand 2.30, Belgium 1.00

    The form score weights every result and every goal by where the opponent sat in the table, so five wins over the bottom of the table score below five over the top.

    0/5New Zealand
    Clean Sheetslast 5 games
    Belgium1/5
    2/5New Zealand
    Failed to Scorelast 5 games
    Belgium1/5
    1.0New Zealand
    Goals For per game
    Belgium2.7
    2.3New Zealand
    Goals Against per game
    Belgium1.0
    0New Zealand
    Win Streakmatches
    Belgium0
    Season averages • New Zealand: 10 matches • Belgium: 10 matches • Refreshed weekly
    New Zealand
    New Zealand
    Poor0.7/10
    Form score, last 10 matches
    LLDLL
    Over 2.5 goals
    4/5
    BTTS
    3/5
    Clean sheet
    0/5
    Scored in
    3/5
    Belgium
    Belgium
    Solid6.2/10
    Form score, last 10 matches
    DWWWL
    Over 2.5 goals
    4/5
    BTTS
    4/5
    Clean sheet
    1/5
    Scored in
    4/5
    Last 5 meetings
    0W - 0D - 1L from New Zealand's perspective
    • 27 Jun 2026New Zealand1-5Belgium
    New Zealand
    New Zealand
    Last 5 matches
    • 27 Jun 2026vsBelgium1-5L
    • 22 Jun 2026vsEgypt1-3L
    • 16 Jun 2026vsIran2-2D
    • 06 Jun 2026vsEngland1-0L
    • 03 Jun 2026vsHaiti4-0L
    Belgium
    Belgium
    Last 5 matches
    • 10 Jul 2026vsSpain2-1L
    • 07 Jul 2026vsUSA1-4W
    • 01 Jul 2026vsSenegal3-2W
    • 27 Jun 2026vsNew Zealand1-5W
    • 21 Jun 2026vsIran0-0D
    PosTeamPts
    1Belgium5
    2Egypt5
    3Iran3
    4New Zealand1
    Updated daily

    New Zealand vs Belgium: form and season numbers

    New Zealand take a form score of 0.7 out of 10 into this World Cup fixture, against 6.2 for Belgium. New Zealand have 1 draw and 4 defeats in their last 5, while Belgium have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in theirs. Across the season New Zealand average 1.0 goals scored and 2.3 conceded per game, Belgium 2.7 and 1.0. New Zealand have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their matches this season, Belgium in 30%. In their last 1 meeting New Zealand have won 0, drawn 0 and lost 1. New Zealand sit 4th on 1 point, Belgium 1st on 5.

    Form, head-to-head and season statistics are free to read. The model's predictions for this fixture are in the cards above.

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